Tennessee and South Carolina odds and win probabilities diverge

No. 11 Tennessee enters Week 8 of the college football season with a 59.9% chance to defeat South Carolina, according to ESPN’s Matchup Predictor. The Volunteers carry a 6-1 overall record and a 3-1 mark in the Southeastern Conference into Columbia, South Carolina, where they will face a 3-3 Gamecocks squad holding a 1-3 conference record.

Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. EDT on Saturday at Williams-Brice Stadium. The data models from Dimers project a 27-24 win for South Carolina with a 55.2% win probability for the Gamecocks.

Historical Matchup Trends Between Tennessee and South Carolina

Tennessee leads the all-time series 29-11-2 in a rivalry that dates back to Oct. 29, 1903. Head coach Josh Heupel holds a 2-1 record against South Carolina since taking over the program in Knoxville.

Saturday’s contest marks Heupel’s second game coaching in Columbia. South Carolina defeated Tennessee 63-38 on Nov. 19, 2022, in their last meeting at Williams-Brice Stadium. The two teams last met on Sept. 30, 2023, at Neyland Stadium, where the Volunteers secured a 41-20 win. Heupel’s first meeting with the Gamecocks on Oct. 9, 2021, also resulted in a 41-20 victory for Tennessee in Knoxville.

Betting Markets and Model Projections for Week 8

Betting odds position Tennessee as a narrow 1.5-point favorite with a +130 spread, while South Carolina sits as an underdog at +1.5 with a -144 line, according to Dimers. The moneyline lists Tennessee at +120 and South Carolina at -122. The over/under point total is set at 50.5 points.

Dimers’ machine learning models evaluate more than 100 data points per team to generate win probabilities and score projections. Those models diverge from ESPN’s Matchup Predictor by favoring the Gamecocks in a 27-24 final score, citing specific scoring trends and player statistics across both rosters.