The Ukraine crisis

The ratification of Sweden’s NATO application has taken time, as both Turkey and Hungary have refused. On Tuesday, an overwhelming majority in Turkey’s National Assembly voted to approve Sweden’s application for NATO membership.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan now has two weeks to formally sign the document – before everything is ready from the Turkish side. Then only Hungary and their reluctant Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s approval remains.

On Wednesday, Orban spoke with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg by phone. After the meeting, they were both able to say that Orban and the government support Sweden’s NATO application and recommend that the country’s national assembly approve it at the first opportunity.

Expert: This is what Orban wants from Sweden

Nevertheless, this does not mean that Orban and his government have given up on horse-trading in exchange for membership, according to Tobias Schumacher at NTNU. He is professor of European studies at IHK at NTNU and deputy head of REDEMOS, an international research project on the EU’s democracy support for Eastern Europe.

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Tobias Schumacher is professor of European studies at IHK at NTNU and deputy head of REDEMOS, an international research project on the EU’s democracy support for Eastern Europe. Photo: NTNU

He is sure that there are negotiations going on behind the scenes and that Orban still has opportunities to pressure Sweden, even with the votes of the parliament, as it will also be signed by the Hungarian president, who is an Orban ally.

– For several years now, Orban has indulged himself in playing the role of a kind of “party brake”. So far it has helped him extract many concessions, although it also has its price, says Tobias Schumacher to ABC Nyheter. He points out that this has particularly affected the Prime Minister’s reputation abroad.

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– With this in mind, he is now trying to exploit his position as the final judge of Sweden’s NATO membership, says the NTNU professor and points to three potential Hungarian demands.

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Wants a new fighter jet agreement

Firstly, Hungary leases 14 JAS Gripen fighters manufactured by Swedish Saab AB

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– Given their technological advantage, Orban hopes to expand the leasing and perhaps even expand the Gripen programme, to lease even more fighters from Sweden, he says.

– In contrast, Stockholm has shown reluctance to give a positive answer, mainly as a result of Orban’s illiberal policy at home and Hungary’s dramatic democratic decline, says Schumacher and elaborates:

– In a situation where very few, if any, western partners seem willing to sell military equipment to an increasingly less democratic Orban regime, Orban sees Sweden’s dependence on the Hungarian parliament’s NATO vote as an opportunity to significantly upgrade the Hungarian military , at a relatively low price.

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Here is a JAS-39 Gripen fighter from the Hungarian Air Force during a demonstration flight in Lithuanian airspace last year. Hungary wants to use the lease agreement as a crowbar for Swedish NATO membership, according to an NTNU expert. Illustration photo Photo: Sandor Ujvari / AP

Easy for Sweden to swallow

Schumacher believes that Hungary can quickly get its way here, since it will be easy for Sweden to defend an extension of this agreement.

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– It may even be sufficient to get Hungary’s approval for Sweden’s NATO application in the end, he says.

– Prime Minister Kristersson can sell such an agreement to the Swedish population as an investment in Sweden’s own security by building up NATO ally Hungary’s military aviation capacity.

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– The argument will probably be that it is a direct investment in Sweden’s own defence.

– In addition, such an agreement will be able to strengthen Sweden’s military industry and secure jobs. Kristersson will probably present this as a continuation of already existing military cooperation with Hungary.

He therefore believes that this point will be easily accepted by both Hungary and Sweden.

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Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson still has to wait for the country to be admitted to NATO. Now Turkey has finally given the thumbs up, but it is far from certain that Hungary will not come up with its own wish list, despite promises of progress. Photo: AP / NTB Photo: NTB

Frozen EU funds

According to the NTNU political scientist, Orban’s second wish is for the European Commission’s frozen funds.

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In December last year, the Commission decided to freeze transfers to Hungary of around 22 billion euros after determining that the Hungarian government did not comply with EU rules on human rights and the principles of the rule of law. The EU has since released some of this money, but around €17 billion is still blocked.

– Orban is trying to pressure Sweden into giving its support to Hungary’s cause. In fact, he hopes Stockholm will pressure the commission to also release the remaining billions, says Schumacher and elaborates:

– Orban is now trying to connect NATO membership to a non-NATO-related problem, which, strictly speaking, is about Hungary’s domestic political and economic development.

He believes that Sweden may be willing to, at least as a compromise, not go against the demand to have the frozen funds released.

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– This will also be something that Sweden can quite easily agree to and Orban will probably also be able to accept.

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Opposition to Ukraine Fund

The third point will probably be worse for Sweden to accept. It is about the EU’s plan for a Ukraine fund, where the EU has envisaged giving 50 billion in aid to the war-torn country over the next few years.

Orban, with his still relatively close ties to the Kremlin, has been an active opponent of such a fund and denied Ukraine EU membership.

– Arguing that Ukraine suffers from “endemic corruption” and that the money would be better spent in a concentrated effort to make peace with Putin’s autocratic Russia, Orban still enjoys quite close relations with Russia on several levels.

– He sees Sweden’s NATO membership application as the perfect opportunity to reduce new economic obligations towards the EU and at the same time please the Kremlin, which obviously sees any Western support for Ukraine as vulnerable in its illegal and brutal attack on the sovereignty of Ukraine.

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Viktor Orban has continued to nurture relations with Russia and President Vladimir Putin despite Nato membership and the attack on neighboring Ukraine in 2022. Photo: AP

Won’t get support

This will be a compromise that will be difficult for Stockholm to swallow.

– Not least since they, in the capacity of being a future NATO member, consider investments in Ukraine as investments in their own future European security and Sweden’s own military deterrence, he says.

– By being both a NATO member and an EU member, it is quite unlikely that Sweden will ease up on these obligations.

2024-01-25 05:06:02
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