Russia Threat: NATO & Estonia Assess Risk & Increased Artillery Production
Russia is unlikely to attack NATO this year, but is actively planning to significantly bolster its forces along the alliance’s eastern flank, according to a senior European intelligence chief. The assessment, delivered amid continued Russian incursions into NATO airspace, suggests Moscow is preparing for a long-term confrontation even as its military faces challenges in Ukraine.
The intelligence chief’s assessment, reported by the Associated Press, comes as Estonia, a NATO member bordering Russia, has also weighed in on the threat. Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service last week described Russia as “dangerous despite its incompetence,” but cautioned against “panic,” stating it saw no immediate intention for an attack on Estonia or other NATO members. The Estonian assessment projects that a Russian attack is unlikely in the near future, given increased defense measures across Europe.
Recent activity, although, indicates a heightened level of probing. In September and October 2025, Russian jets repeatedly entered NATO airspace, briefly crossing into Estonia, Romania, and Poland, according to the European Council on Foreign Relations. These incursions prompted concern among European capitals, with some interpreting them as deliberate tests of NATO’s resolve following nearly four years of war in Ukraine.
A senior NATO official, speaking during a background briefing, echoed the assessment that a Russian attack on the alliance is not imminent. “What protects us is the strength of the alliance and the faith that we and Russia have in Article 5 [NATO’s collective defense clause],” the official said, adding that recent pledges by NATO members to increase defense spending to 3.5 percent of GDP further deter aggression. “So long as we continue to make the investments, that’s what keeps us on the side of the equation in which Russia wouldn’t dare.”
Despite the lack of an immediate threat, both the Estonian report and the NATO official emphasized Russia’s increased artillery production. This suggests Moscow intends to maintain a significant military capacity even if a resolution is reached in Ukraine. Kaupo Rosin, director general of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, wrote in the introduction to the 2026 yearbook that Russia’s calculations of the balance of power must always function to Estonia’s advantage.
Estonia, geographically isolated and possessing a Russian-speaking minority, has long been considered a potential target for Russian aggression. However, analysis from the European Council on Foreign Relations suggests that four years of war in Ukraine have diminished Russia’s financial, personnel, and military resources, making a successful offensive or hybrid attack unlikely in the short term. Estonia itself has developed a three-pronged defense concept focused on artillery, air defense, and societal resilience.
The intelligence assessments suggest Russia will require five to ten years to fully refit and rearm after the conclusion of the war in Ukraine before posing a substantial conventional military threat to NATO.