Rising Brazil Coffee Exports and Increased Inventories Press Arabica Prices

December arabica coffee closed down 2.60 cents, or 0.93%, at a five-week low on Thursday, pressured by expectations of rising exports from Brazil as 55,396 bags awaited grading at Intercontinental Exchange warehouses, the highest volume in seven weeks according to barchart.com reporting.

ICE Arabica Inventories Fall to Seven-Week Low

Coffee shipments have arrived rapidly from Brazil since mid-September. ICE inventories of Brazilian coffee climbed to a 9.25-month high of 83,678 bags on Thursday.

Grading tests take one to two weeks, or longer during periods of high volume, before exchanges add the coffee to certified warehouse figures. Overall ICE arabica inventories fell to a seven-week low of 220,379 bags on Tuesday, resting just above the 27-year low of 217,646 bags recorded on September 15.

At the same time, January ICE robusta coffee closed up 13 cents, or 0.40%. Robusta prices found support after India’s Coffee Board cut its 2026/27 production estimate to 380,000 metric tons, down 5% from a previous estimate of 400,000 metric tons, due to below-normal monsoon rains.

Brazilian Real Falls to 10.25-Month Low

Prices were already on the defensive after the Brazilian real fell to a 10.25-month low against the dollar. The currency weakened following the presidential election victory of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. A softer real encourages exporters to sell larger volumes to secure higher dollar returns.

Vietnam also posted rising export figures. The country’s National Statistics Office reported that October coffee exports rose 61% year-over-year to 114,000 metric tons, while January-to-October exports increased 18.8% to 1.57 MMT.

Brazil remains the world’s largest coffee producer and exporter, accounting for 35-40% of global production and nearly 30% of exports, based on International Coffee Organization and USDA data.

Minas Gerais Receives Heavy Rainfall During Flowering Stage

Somar Meteorologia reported that 29.6 millimeters of rain fell in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s primary arabica region, in the week ending October 25. Above-normal rainfall during the critical flowering stage points toward a larger harvest for the 2026/27 season.

Meanwhile, government forecasting agency Conab raised its 2026 Brazil coffee production estimate to 67.6 million bags on September 24. Arabica production is expected to jump 34.8% year-over-year to 48.21 million bags.

Contrasting those figures, Colombia’s Coffee Federation reported that 2025/26 production dropped 15% to 12.65 million bags, with exports falling 12% to 11.78 million bags.