WASHINGTON – A market is emerging where traders are betting on what words will be uttered by public figures, turning the attention economy into a tradable asset. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are facilitating these “mention markets,” allowing users to profit from predicting whether specific terms will be used during events like State of the Union addresses or corporate earnings calls.
The phenomenon gained attention recently with markets centered around NFL broadcasts, where tens of millions of dollars have been wagered on whether announcers will say certain phrases, according to ESPN reports. The stakes are expanding beyond sports, with markets now existing on what companies will disclose during earnings calls – including whether Chipotle will mention “al pastor.”
This surge in popularity is prompting regulatory scrutiny. States are increasingly challenging the legality of these platforms, arguing they constitute unlicensed gambling. Multiple platforms, including Robinhood’s derivatives arm, and Crypto.com, have received cease-and-desist orders, according to reports. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is too weighing in, currently drafting clearer rules for “event contracts” as the category expands, Reuters reported.
The CFTC’s involvement signals a potential federal defense of these markets, which platforms argue fall under the agency’s jurisdiction as regulated derivatives. This legal battle is unfolding as the volume of trading increases, with Polymarket’s market on the length of President Trump’s State of the Union address nearing $1 million in trading volume, according to Kalshi data.
Beyond simply predicting whether a word will be said, markets are becoming increasingly granular. Kalshi currently offers odds on the duration of President Trump’s State of the Union speech, while other markets speculate on the length of handshakes between political figures and even whether the President will drink water during the address. One market even attempts to predict the color of President Trump’s tie.
The Motley Fool’s 2026 Investor Outlook & Predictions Survey indicates a broader trend of bullish sentiment driven by optimism around artificial intelligence, though this doesn’t directly relate to mention markets. The survey found that 58% of individual investors plan to buy more stocks in 2026, with AI being the dominant investment theme for 65% of investors.
While some use these markets for hedging real-world risk, the current landscape is largely driven by speculation and entertainment. Concerns about market integrity have also surfaced, with Kalshi banning and fining traders for alleged insider trading related to a YouTube editor and a political candidate, as reported by Business Insider.
Platforms like Manifold offer play-money markets, allowing users to create markets on personal goals or the growth of the platform itself, demonstrating the internet’s inherent drive to quantify and gamify everything. Other key players in the space include PredictIt (focused on politics), ForecastEx (accessible through Interactive Brokers), FanDuel Predicts (in partnership with CME Group), and crypto-based platforms like Myriad.
The CFTC is reportedly working on fresh regulations governing event contracts, acknowledging the growing popularity and complexity of these markets. The agency’s actions will likely determine the future of this emerging asset class, potentially paving the way for wider adoption or stricter limitations.
