Polls show no majority for Netanyahu or opposition before election
Israel’s national election stands six days away with voter turnout projected to run high across its 7.3 million eligible electorate, creating momentous repercussions that extend far beyond the 120 seats up for grabs in the Knesset. The upcoming vote will determine whether the decades-long tenure of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues or concludes, with global consequences affecting Jewish and Palestinian diasporas, corporate investors, publishers, and human rights activists worldwide.
Final Polls Show Deep Gridlock and Short Majorities
Final pre-election surveys published Friday before the mandatory blackout period showed neither the incumbent coalition nor the opposition change bloc securing the 61 seats required to form a governing majority. According to a Channel 13 poll cited by The Times of Israel, the anti-Netanyahu change bloc is projected to capture 54 seats, while parties loyal to the premier stand at 50 seats, leaving predominantly Arab factions with 16 seats. The Channel 13 survey attributed 22 seats to Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, 19 to Netanyahu’s Likud, 14 to Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad, and 10 to the left-wing Democrats.
A competing survey from Channel 12 forecast 56 seats for the change bloc, 50 seats for the current coalition, and 14 seats combined for the Arab-majority Joint List and Ra’am parties. That poll detailed 23 seats for Yashar, 21 for Likud, 15 for B’Yachad, 10 for the Democrats, nine for the Joint List, eight each for Yisrael Beytenu, Shas, and Otzma Yehudit, seven for United Torah Judaism, six for Religious Zionism, and five for Ra’am. Meanwhile, a public broadcaster survey by Kan largely mirrored those numbers while predicting that Hendel’s faction would barely clear the electoral threshold with four seats.
High Turnout Driven by Fear Among Palestinian Citizens
Palestinian citizens of Israel, who account for roughly 20% of the population, are mobilizing in high numbers to participate in the vote, driven by profound anxieties regarding the far right. Community leaders view high voter turnout as essential to unseating Netanyahu's administration. Ahmad Tibi, head of the Ta’al party, told constituents that the primary motivation driving voters to the ballot is fear of what another four years of far-right ministerial policies might bring, noting the heavy toll of conflict in Gaza and the West Bank alongside rising discrimination.
Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed public concern over his electoral prospects during an interview with Radio North, stating that he was worried about securing a victory and confirming that he would not retire from politics should he fail to form a government. Netanyahu cautioned voters that an opposition government led by figures such as Gadi Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, and Avigdor Liberman would inevitably rely on the political support of Arab parties like Ra’am and Ta’al to reach a 61-seat majority.
Polling stations across the country are scheduled to close at 10 p.m. on Tuesday, at which point exit polls will be released to the public.