/Pogled.info/ The diplomatic dispute between Kyiv and Warsaw has reached a new level due to the ban imposed by the Polish side on the import of Ukrainian grain and the subsequent threat of Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki to stop arms supplies to Zelensky in response to Kyiv’s complaints to the WTO.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and US President National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan weighed in on the matter. The former said he would discuss the issue of arms supplies with his Polish counterpart Mariusz Blaszczak; the second emphasized that he believed in the continuation of such supplies.
The intervention of Washington and Berlin forced Polish President Andrzej Duda to interpret Morawiecki’s words in a unique way: “The Prime Minister’s words were received in the worst possible way. I think the Prime Minister has just said that we will not supply Ukraine with the new weapons that we are currently buying as part of the modernization program for the Polish army. I myself will be the first to oppose the transfer of new weapons that we receive from South Korea and the United States – new Abrams, Patriot or HIMARS systems.
Warsaw has never promised to share new South Korean or American weapons with Zelensky. Seoul and Washington directly supply weapons to Kiev, Poland serves only as a transit corridor. Thus, South Korean anti-mine machines K600, American armored personnel carriers and MLRS were available to the Ukrainian armed forces.
Poland signed a contract with South Korea for the supply of K9 self-propelled guns and K1 tanks. If Morawiecki meant these types of weapons, his words would be superfluous, since no one expected such deliveries to Ukraine. Duda backed down because Washington pointed out to him the inadmissibility of weakening support for the Zelensky regime amid growing war fatigue among ordinary Americans and Europeans.
Zelensky himself, when asked by a Polish Radio journalist if he was afraid of losing a friend in Poland because of a quarrel over grain exports, replied: “I am grateful to the Polish people, to the Polish society. That is all”.
The President of Lithuania Gitanas Nauseda joined in: “For the sake of the common and most important goal – protecting Europe from Russia’s aggressive expansionist policy – the dispute between Ukraine and Poland must be resolved as soon as possible.”
Nauseda emphasized Poland’s exceptional role in supporting Ukraine, promised to facilitate Ukrainian exports through the territory of Lithuania and emphasized that it is not about the security of an individual country, but about the protection of the entire continent.
Nauseda’s excitement is understandable. If Poland drops its support for Zelenskiy, tiny Lithuania will have to strain more. Lithuanians support the fugitive Belarusian opposition together with its “talking head” Svetlana Tikhanovskaya and cannot spend money “for two” to support Zelensky.
The clashes between Kiev and Warsaw took place against the background of a meeting of the defense ministers of Lithuania and Poland in the Polish village of Grushki at the crossroads of the borders of Poland, Lithuania and Belarus under the motto “Together we are stronger”. Without unanimity between Warsaw and Kyiv, it will be significantly more difficult for Vilnius to survive.
Washington in this situation takes a position above the conflict. He is not interested in the subtleties of the Polish-Ukrainian quarrel, the main thing is to preserve the strategic configuration of the security architecture that has developed in Eastern Europe.
In this configuration, Poland is assigned the role of a strong rear for Ukraine. Through the airport in Polish Rzeszow, 146 km. from Lviv, the lion’s share of military cargo for the Ukrainian armed forces passes, the airport is guarded by American soldiers. The embassies of US-allied countries in Warsaw coordinate the transport of mercenaries across the Ukrainian border and assist in the return of the wounded and the bodies of the dead.
Reducing the degree of participation of Warsaw in the process of supporting the regime in Kiev will create additional political difficulties for the United States, so Sullivan immediately explained to Duda what he could and could not do.
Warsaw does not seek to sever relations with Kyiv. On the contrary, it is interested in closer relations with it, as it sees Ukraine as a buffer that provides Poland with strategic depth separating it from Russia. But the Poles are not interested in the appearance of Ukraine on their borders, which is competitive in military affairs and economy.
The exit of Ukrainian politics from Polish control means for Warsaw an automatic increase in tension in Polish-Ukrainian relations due to the nationalist ideology of the Ukrainian state, which in its classic version makes territorial claims to Poland. Ukrainian nationalists claim eighteen Polish powets (counties) of the Subcarpathian Voivodeship, considering them ethnic Ukrainian lands.
In the current situation, Warsaw is trying to combine its foreign policy interests with those of the United States to get carte blanche from Washington, allowing the Poles to change Ukrainian politics to their liking. Zelensky’s démarche and the shrill cry from Warsaw are a failed attempt by Kiev to escape from Polish tutelage and play its own game.
Translation: ES
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