On Our Radar
16 January 2026
CUBA The bodies of 32 Cuban soldiers killed during the 3 January U.S. raid in Venezuela arrived in Havana Thursday. Cuba is facing considerable uncertainty after U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday urged its government to “make a deal” or face the consequences, vowing that the U.S. would cut the Venezuelan oil supply to the island nation, which is heavily dependent on these deliveries for its energy needs. Crisis Group expert Renata Segura says Washington appears to be calculating that a deepening economic crisis in Cuba will mobilise the masses to bring about the regime’s collapse. The Cuban regime retains a strong military and solid ties to Russia and China, however, and previously has not hesitated to crush dissent.
GREENLAND Several European NATO members have deployed troops to Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, to beef up infrastructure and carry out joint military exercises after U.S. President Donald Trump repeatedly stated that the U.S. intends to acquire the island, by force if necessary. Wednesday’s meeting among the U.S., Greenland and Denmark in Washington failed to resolve “basic disagreement” on Greenland’s future, according to the danish foreign minister. With Europe already buffeted by Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine, says Crisis Group expert Olga Oliker, this crisis will have dire implications for the future of NATO and European security writ large if the U.S. does not back down.
SYRIA Thousands demonstrated in the north east Tuesday against government forces’ expulsion of Kurdish fighters from Aleppo. Since the last Kurdish fighters left the city Sunday,fighting shifted eastward,raising the risk of sustained confrontation. In early January,the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) clashed with the Syrian army in Aleppo as negotiations to integrate Syria’s north east under central government control stalled. Crisis Group expert nanar Hawach says Damascus cannot take the whole region militarily, but it will likely keep applying pressure on the SDF. The U.S., which supports both sides, has kept a ceiling on escalation thus far and should use its leverage to bring the parties back to the negotiating table.
9 January 2026
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC Provisional results show that President Faustin-Archange Touadéra has secured a third term after general elections on 28 December. Two challengers – Anicet-Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra – have called for annulling the vote, alleging fraud, while the main opposition coalition boycotted the ballot, citing an uneven playing field.The disputed poll coincided with renewed violence in the south east. Fighters linked to the Azandé Ani Kpi Gbé (AAKG) – a Zandé self-defense militia – disrupted voting in Bambouti. Clashes then spread, including AAKG attacks on government forces around Zémio in early January.The AAKG was initially aligned with Bangui but later broke with the government after its rapprochement with a Fulani-led armed group that the militia accuses of encroaching on Zandé land. Crisis Group expert Fulbert Ngodji says the AAKG may be digging in to battle the state. Stability during Touadéra’s new term will hinge on promoting intercommunal dialog in the south east, better integrating militias under army command, and reducing regional isolation through development and security reform.
IRAN The falling value of Iran’s national currency sparked demonstrations that as late December have grown into nationwide anti-regime unrest. The government has altered its subsidy policies but done little to dampen wider grievances. At least three dozen peopel have been killed as state forces crack down on protests that show little sign of slowing down. Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez says the Islamic Republic faces a major dilemma: it is neither willing nor able to adopt reforms that could meet expectations for political, social and economic change and on notice from U.S. President Donald Trump that outside intervention is possible if its repression intensifies.
LEBANON Lebanon said it had passed a milestone in disarming Hizbollah, but the country’s fragile ceasefire deal with Israel remains imperilled. On Thursday, the Lebanese army announced that it had brought all weapons under state control in the southern area between the Litani River and the Israeli border. Israel immediately disputed the army’s assertion, saying Hizbollah retains military infrastructure in that region. Crisis Group expert David Wood says Beirut faces dangers ahead in any case. the army must soon move toward disarming Hizbollah north of the Litani, where the group refuses to comply – driving up the risk of internal discord. Yet Lebanese leaders also know that Israel will almost certainly respond to any hold-ups in disarming Hizbollah with severe military escalations, inflicting still more pain on their embattled country.
