Missouri Election Turnout Could Approach Record Driven by Ballot Measures
Missouri election officials are bracing for a potential record-breaking turnout in Tuesday’s election, driven by high-stakes ballot measures rather than a marquee statewide candidate race. State officials anticipate participation could reach or exceed the 2018 benchmark of 2,442,306 voters, with approximately 55% of the state’s 4.4 million registered voters expected to cast ballots. That projected participation rate would represent about 2.42 million ballots, falling just short of the 2018 total, though a slight increase in that rate could establish a new record, according to Secretary of State Denny Hoskins, whose estimate was relayed by spokeswoman Anne Marie Moy in a text to The Independent.
The intensity of this cycle is largely attributed to three controversial ballot questions and expensive legislative contests that have energized voters across the state. While the 2018 midterm saw a U.S. Senate race with over $100 million in spending, the current election cycle has seen $55 million poured into ballot measure campaigns alone, according to tracking by The Independent. “Turnout is great,” said Tyler Spencer, Republican director of the Jackson County Election Board. “We love when people get out and vote.”
Early Voting Trends Across Missouri Counties
No-excuse absentee voting, which began Oct. 20, concluded as local election offices shuttered their doors on Monday afternoon. The period saw consistent traffic that suggests significant engagement, though patterns vary by region. In St. Louis County, the state’s most populous jurisdiction, over one-fourth of registered voters had already cast ballots by the time early voting ended, with 173,484 people having participated.
Other regions report similar momentum. In St. Charles County, elections director Kurt Bahr noted that the 35,000 ballots received represent double the early turnout seen in 2022, the first year no-excuse voting was available, and about half the volume seen in 2024. Bahr noted that there are three Missouri House districts targeted by both parties in his county, adding, “This shows both that the midterm turnout will be lower than the presidential year and that the two weeks of no excuse voting is becoming more popular.” Meanwhile, in Platte County, election director Chris Hershey reported an average of 1,000 voters per day throughout the early period, projecting that roughly 72% of the county’s more than 80,000 voters will ultimately participate. Hershey noted that voters are focused on a targeted Missouri House race and a state Senate contest in the 34th District that has become unexpectedly competitive.
Not every county is seeing the same surge. In Franklin County, Clerk Tim Baker described turnout as steady, noting that early voting numbers are currently about half of what was recorded in 2024. Boone County Clerk Brianna Lennon echoed this observation, describing the current participation levels as a healthy middle ground between previous midterm and presidential years.
Statewide Ballot Measures Dominate Campaign Spending
The primary draw for voters in this election is a trio of statewide ballot questions that have dominated campaign messaging. Amendment 3, which seeks to ban most abortions, stands alongside Amendment 6, aimed at limiting legislative power to amend initiative petitions, and Proposition A, a referendum regarding redistricting. Nearly $17 million of the $55 million total campaign spending has been funneled specifically into broadcast advertising for these measures, as tracked by The Independent.
Legislative races are further compounding the interest in specific districts. Jackson County has seen 21,049 ballots cast through Friday morning. Greene County is also hosting a multimillion-dollar state Senate race, with candidates and supporters spending $6 million in the 30th District, alongside three Missouri House districts targeted by both parties. Schoeller noted that the combination of competitive local legislative races and significant ballot issues has created an environment that is far from the typical low-interest midterm. “This election is unusual, as you know, because state auditor is the only statewide race on the ballot,” Schoeller said. “The issues on this ballot are really driving the turnout.”
Polls Open Early Tuesday for Final Voting
Polls are scheduled to open at 6 a.m. on Tuesday and will remain open until 7 p.m. Election authorities confirmed that any voter standing in line by the 7 p.m. cutoff will be permitted to cast their ballot.
As the state moves toward the final count, the focus remains on whether the current surge in early engagement will translate into a new historical record for a nonpresidential year.
With the final votes yet to be tallied, the impact of these ballot measures on the state’s legislature is still unknown. As Secretary of State Denny Hoskins and local officials await the final numbers, the high volume of early ballots suggests that the state’s electorate remains deeply engaged over the issues presented.