It’s hard to imagine how much the world has changed in so little time. Here is a summary:
- Researchers report a high death rate based on a group of known corona patients
- The media picks up this number and asks politicians to respond to it
- Politicians exaggerate because if the worst case scenario doesn’t come true they can always claim to have averted a catastrophe
- Mass unemployment, out of control government spending, corona communism
Let’s put this in perspective. In the Dutch winter of 2017/2018, 9,500 people died of the flu. We did not take extreme measures (closing companies, saying that people should stay at home, closing borders, etc.) to prevent these deaths. Why not?
The reason is because models assume that the coronavirus is much more dangerous than the flu. There is no hard evidence. Even RIVM states on its website that it cannot confirm that the coronavirus is more dangerous than the flu. That’s because the mortality rate is calculated relative to the group of corona patients who are very ill, while we know relatively little about the much larger group of corona cases that have no or few symptoms – and therefore are not tested.
Professors Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya looked at the available research testing a larger population. An example is the Italian village of Vò, where the entire population of 3,300 people was tested. 90 were tested positive for corona, or 2.7% of the villagers.
If we apply that 2.7% to the entire province (955,000 people), there should be 26,000 corona cases. But how many were known at the time? Only 198. Taking into account a larger group of corona cases, the Italian mortality rate is 130 times lower, from 8% to 0.06%, comparable to the flu.
According to research by the Sanquin blood bank, 3 percent of the Dutch have antibodies against corona in their blood. That would mean that more than half a million Dutch have already had the virus, which is more than 17 times higher than the number of confirmed cases. If 17 times more people have already had the virus, the chance of death is also 17 times lower than assumed (from 11% to 0.6%).
What we know for sure is that the mortality rate among the elderly is much higher. We can specify the largest risk group even further. For example, 48.6% of all Italian deaths had three or more conditions before they got corona. Many of these patients probably die “with” the virus and not “with” the virus. Only 1.2% of deceased corona patients had no conditions beforehand. Elderly people with conditions are also more likely to enter the hospital.
The largest risk groups are better off staying at home. The rest of the population can return to work, with the necessary precautionary measures. This lockdown is an overreaction and must stop immediately.