Lebanon Crisis: Hezbollah, Israel Conflict & Rising Civilian Toll | New Yorker Q&A

More than a thousand people have been killed and over a million displaced in Lebanon since October, according to recent accounts, as fighting intensifies along the Israel-Lebanon border. The scale of the humanitarian crisis, affecting over 14 percent of the country’s population of five million, is unfolding alongside concerns that Israel may seek to redraw the boundary between the two nations.

The escalation began shortly after the United States and Israel launched attacks against Iran, prompting retaliatory missile fire from Hezbollah, the Iran-backed paramilitary and political group wielding significant power in Lebanon. Israel responded with airstrikes and a “limited” ground incursion into southern Lebanon. While the conflict in Iran has dominated international headlines, the situation in Lebanon is rapidly deteriorating.

To understand the complexities of this widening conflict, we spoke with Maha Yahya, director of the Carnegie Endowment’s Middle East Center, from her home in Beirut. Yahya described a Lebanese political landscape already fractured and resentful before October 7th, and how the war in Gaza dramatically altered the dynamics.

“The situation prior to October 7th was pretty much status quo,” Yahya explained. “The last war between Israel and Lebanon was in 2006, and the ceasefire was holding. There was very little interaction along the border. In 2022, an agreement was struck to finalize the delineation of our maritime borders, and some disputed points on the land borders had been resolved.”

Internally, Lebanon was grappling with a power struggle between various political factions, with Hezbollah holding considerable sway. This followed decades of sectarian power-sharing arrangements, rooted in the aftermath of the 1975-1990 Lebanese Civil War, where the heads of various militias transitioned into government positions in 1989. Growing public discontent had been building, particularly after widespread protests in 2019 sparked by economic collapse and perceived government mismanagement. The New Yorker reported on the broader context of the conflict.

Yahya noted that the 2019 protest movement, fueled by cross-sectarian frustration, was unexpectedly curtailed by Hezbollah’s intervention. “Hezbollah came to the fore to defend the system,” she said. “The division of power between six political leaders from different sectarian backgrounds gave them outsized political power. Of course, the arms also gave them power within that system.” The momentum of the protests was further disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic and the devastating 2020 Beirut port explosion.

The period following October 7th marked a significant shift. Hezbollah initiated a “low-intensity conflict” on Israel’s northern border in support of Gaza, a move Yahya believes Israel miscalculated. “I don’t believe many of us understood the extent to which that created a shock within the system in Israel and within a society that already was veering to the right,” she stated. This led to an escalation of Israeli strikes deeper into Lebanon, including assassinations, and a series of “pager attacks” on Hezbollah officials – a tactic involving explosive devices disguised as pagers placed in public locations, posing a significant risk to civilians.

The United States and other countries have pressured the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah, but Yahya suggests this effort has been hampered by the complex relationship between the group and the central government. Following the outbreak of hostilities, Hezbollah reportedly sought the Lebanese government’s assistance in negotiating with Israel, a request that ultimately proved unsuccessful and further weakened the group’s position.

Recent reports indicate a change in Iran’s role in supporting Hezbollah. Previously, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (I.R.G.C.) operated as “macromanagers,” providing strategic oversight. Though, following the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah and the intensification of the conflict, I.R.G.C. Members have reportedly taken a more direct role in battlefield operations, assisting in the reorganization of Hezbollah’s military wing. The Conversation details the risks of escalating conflict.

As of this writing, the situation remains volatile, with no clear path toward de-escalation and the potential for further regional destabilization. The Lebanese government has not publicly addressed the evolving role of the I.R.G.C. Within Hezbollah’s military structure.