JCI is believed to be able to reach the level of 7,400 by the end of the year, these stocks can be watched

ILLUSTRATION. Workers clean the area near a screen showing the movement of the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) at the Indonesia Stock Exchange, Jakarta, Monday (9/5/2022). BETWEEN PHOTOS/Hafidz Mubarak A/rpas.

Reporter: Aerospace Wisdom | Editor: Tendi Mahadi

KONTAN.CO.ID – JAKARTA. The Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) is projected to strengthen in the year of economic recovery in 2022, breaking through the 7,400-7,600 level. This prediction is in line with the expectation of economic growth this year which is estimated at around 5.2%.

This was stated by a capital market observer who also Founder Indonesia Superstocks Community Edhi Pranasidhi in the Investment Talk online discussion entitled “Buy in May Harvest in November” which was held by D’Origin Advisory with Igico Advisory, on Wednesday (18/5).

According to Edhi, Indonesia’s GDP on average every year from 2001 to 2020 grew by around 5%. Meanwhile, in 2021 a pandemic will occur which causes Indonesia’s GDP to only be recorded at 3.69%. In 2022 optimism will grow again as the pandemic is getting under control. With economic growth in the first quarter of 2022 reaching 5.01%.

He explained, with reference to GDP growth base then the JCI rate this year can be predicted by calculating economic growth of around 5% multiplied by investment banking data which is 2.5 times of GDP which is around 13% compared to 2021.

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In 2021, the highest level of the JCI reached 6,581. With a 13% increase, the JCI could be at the level of 7,400 this year.

“However, taking into account earnings per index in 2022 which is about 440s or 430, times the average price earnings ratio The highest JCI (PER) in the last 10 years is 17. So, we will get the JCI in 2022, it should be between 7,400 – 7,600, “he said in a written statement.

According to him, this is also strengthened by the rupiah exchange rate which tends to be stable in the range of Rp. 14,400. As well as the prices of Indonesia’s mainstay commodities, such as coal and nickel, which were kept positive. In addition, another factor that can strengthen the JCI is foreign funds entering the domestic capital market.

This is because the inflation rate that hit the global economy due to the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical conflict has forced large amounts of foreign funds into the country emerging market including the capital market in the country.

On the other hand, Edhi also reminded the need to be aware of the increase in interest rates by the Fed. The steps of the United States financial authorities always create disinflationary from stock market. This means that every increase in the Fed’s benchmark interest rate makes stock market come down.

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“That’s the longest impacther is 9 months. So what we must also note is that this condition means that sentiment market it is more influential than anything else,” he reminded.

Therefore, according to him, investors do not need to worry about negative sentiment related to negative perceptions related to trading in the capital market in May. So there is a term sale in/on May and go away.

This perception, he said, arises because in May or even from the end of April to the end of June the world community knows about summer holiday. Where investors usually prefer to save cash rather than assets because they are facing a long holiday.

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Reporter: Hikma Dirgantara
Editor: Tendi Mahadi




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