Italy Referendum: Meloni’s Leadership Tested in Judicial Reform Vote

ROME — Italy’s hardline conservative Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni faces a critical test of her political strength as Italians began voting Sunday in a two-day referendum on judicial reform. The vote, initially framed as a technical adjustment to the country’s legal system, has evolved into a broader referendum on Meloni’s leadership both domestically and on the international stage.

Turnout after the first five hours of voting reached nearly 15 percent, the highest for a two-day referendum in Italy in 23 years, according to the Italian interior ministry. The unexpectedly high participation rate suggests a deeply engaged electorate, and complicates predictions about the outcome.

The proposed reforms center on separating the career paths of judges and prosecutors, currently allowed to switch roles but rarely doing so, and restructuring the High Judicial Council, the body overseeing appointments and disciplinary matters within the judiciary. The plan proposes dividing the council into three chambers and altering the selection process for its members, replacing internal elections with a lottery system.

Meloni initially sought to distance herself from the referendum, recognizing the potential for a defeat to undermine her authority. However, as polls tightened, she increasingly framed the vote as essential to her government’s agenda, sharpening her rhetoric and accusing elements within the judiciary of obstructing efforts on immigration and security. “If the reform doesn’t pass this time, we will probably not have another chance,” she stated at a campaign event last week, warning of “more powerful factions” and a potential risk to public safety. She specifically cited concerns about the release of individuals accused of serious crimes, including sexual assault and drug trafficking.

These warnings have drawn sharp criticism from magistrates and opposition parties, who argue the reforms would erode judicial independence and violate constitutional safeguards. “Obviously (I’m voting) no, because I suppose this government has organised a referendum that serves no purpose other than its own, if it were to go ahead,” said 89-year-old Giovanna Antongini while heading to a polling station in Rome.

The referendum also carries international implications, particularly concerning Meloni’s alignment with U.S. President Donald Trump. Lorenzo Pregliasco, a political analyst at YouTrend, noted that Meloni’s close relationship with Trump, once a political asset, has become increasingly problematic given growing Italian and European disapproval of Trump’s foreign policy, particularly regarding the conflict in the Middle East. “Meloni is facing what I would call the ‘Trump risk’ – which is appearing too subservient to the US president, who is an extremely unpopular political leader in Italy and the rest of Europe and generates a lot of distrust, even among centre-right voters,” Pregliasco said.

A rejection of the reforms would not necessarily force Meloni’s resignation – her mandate extends through 2027 – but could weaken her standing within the European Union, where she is currently viewed as a stabilizing force. Analysts suggest a “No” vote would embolden the centre-left opposition, signaling a viable alternative to Meloni’s government.

The debate over judicial reform has deep roots in Italian politics, dating back to the governments of Silvio Berlusconi, a staunch advocate for changes to the legal system. Supporters of the current reforms argue they will modernize the notoriously slow Italian court system and increase accountability. Opponents, including anti-Mafia prosecutor Nicola Gratteri, contend the changes fail to address the core issues plaguing the judiciary and could hinder efforts to combat organized crime and corruption. “I don’t think this government has implemented the reforms needed to make trials work more effectively,” Gratteri said. “Instead, it has made it virtually impossible to combat crimes against the public administration and to tackle white-collar abuse and corruption.”

As voting continues on Monday, the referendum represents a defining moment for Meloni’s premiership, with the potential to reshape both the Italian justice system and the trajectory of her government.