iPhone 14 Pro shipments could drop by 20 million units Ming-Chi Kuo: It’s hard for Hon Hai to win exclusive 15 Pro

Foxconn’s Zhengzhou factory, the largest manufacturing base in China, recently erupted in a large-scale protest. If the production line is affected, it could lead to Apple’s bankruptcy this year.iphone Production of the Pro series is reduced. Well-known analyst Ming-Chi Kuo pointed out that in addition to facing shipment challenges in the fourth quarter, Hon Hai may not be able to monopolize assembly orders of the iPhone 15 Pro series in the future.

Zhengzhou Foxconn fights overhaul of Ming-Chi Kuo’s shipping forecast

Ming-Chi Kuo insideChirpingThe post warns that due to the impact of Zhengzhou Foxconn employee protests, it will reduce overall iPhone shipments in the fourth quarter by 20%, about 70-75 million units, of which the total shipments of iPhone 14 Pro and 14 Pro Max are expected to decrease by 15 million from 10,000 to 20 million pieces.

Guo Mingchi believes the Zhengzhou factory’s average capacity utilization rate in November is only about 20% and could improve to 30 to 40% in December, although Pegatron and Luxshare got about 10% of iPhone 14 series orders Pro from Hon Hai, but a large number of shipments can only be shipped at the end of December at the earliest, so shipments in December are still significantly lower than expected.

Protests erupted at Foxconn in Zhengzhou, impacting the production capacity of the iPhone Pro series. (Schematic diagram / taken from Foxconn official website)

Apple can’t escape the downside risk, Hon Hai may lose the exclusive 15 Pro

Apple and the iPhone supply chain are facing significant downside risks: Due to the high price of the iPhone 14 Pro series and shipment shortages, Apple’s fourth-quarter revenue is under pressure, which could be 20% to 30% % lower than market consensus beyond this range as well.

As for Hon Hai, it also faces structural competitive challenges. In addition to iPhone shipments in the fourth quarter, revenue may be lower than expected, and Apple wants to diversify supply risks. Therefore, it may be difficult to continue being the assembler exclusive to the iPhone 15 Pro series.

Ming-Chi Kuo predicts that during the economic downturn, most of the demand for the iPhone 14 Pro series in the fourth quarter will disappear due to a significant supply-demand gap, rather than postponed.