Inside Iran: Hope & Fear Amidst Conflict & Calls for Intervention
Communications from inside Iran are fractured and fleeting, but a pattern is emerging: a growing sense of hope, mingled with fear, as weeks of escalating conflict test the Islamic Republic’s grip on power. A software engineer in southern Tehran, reached via intermittent messaging, told a former correspondent, “I am staying because I truly hope this is the final battle and the regime gets the hell out of here.” The sentiment, echoed in brief phone calls and encrypted messages, suggests a widespread revulsion towards the ruling theocracy, even as civilian infrastructure faces sustained attacks.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), established in May 1979 following the Iranian Revolution, is central to the regime’s survival. According to Wikipedia, the IRGC is a multi-service primary force of the Iranian Armed Forces, comprised of five branches: Ground Forces, Aerospace Force, Navy, Quds Force, and Basij. The Quds Force, in particular, has been implicated in supporting proxy conflicts throughout the Middle East, as noted in reports on Tehran’s regional proxies.
The current unrest has forced ordinary Iranians to adapt to a new reality. Family members are now taking precautions against potential bombings, wearing shoes indoors in case of shattered glass and preparing for rapid evacuation. Bread kiosks, though still operating in many neighborhoods, impose strict purchase limits. Checkpoints once manned by the Basij, the IRGC’s volunteer militia, have been abandoned or destroyed, signaling a potential weakening of the regime’s control in some areas. The IRGC, with an estimated 125,000 active personnel in 2024, according to web search results, is facing a challenge to maintain order.
The human cost of the conflict is becoming increasingly apparent. One woman in Tehran recounted the story of her aunt, who briefly returned to her apartment to retrieve medication after being convinced to evacuate, only to have the building bombed shortly after her return. Her niece witnessed the destruction from the car. Such accounts, expected to proliferate once communications are fully restored, underscore the brutal reality of the fighting. The IRGC has been designated as a terrorist group by several countries, including Australia, Canada, and Bahrain, as detailed in Wikipedia.
Despite the dangers, a sense of optimism persists, fueled by the deaths of high-ranking officials like Ali Larijani, a staunch loyalist of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This sentiment, however, is tempered by concerns over potential escalation. Reports indicate that former U.S. President Trump threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s electrical power plants if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened, though he later asserted his administration was engaged in “very strong talks” and postponed military strikes for five days.
The desire for external intervention, once widespread following the 2003 U.S. Invasion of Iraq, waned as sectarian violence engulfed the country. Iranians who initially hoped for liberation witnessed instead chaos and ruin, fueled in part by Tehran’s regional proxies. However, the current crisis has rekindled calls for assistance, with some Iranians believing that intervention by the U.S. And Israel could finally bring an end to the Islamic Republic. The IRGC, as described by UANI, exists to defend the regime against both internal and external threats, making any such intervention a direct confrontation.
The IRGC’s origins lie in the Revolutionary Committees Movement, and it has evolved into a powerful force with significant economic and political influence. OpenSanctions lists numerous aliases for the IRGC, including AGIR, Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution, and SEPAH. The organization’s budget was estimated at $6.96 billion in 2020, demonstrating its substantial resources.
As the conflict continues, the future of Iran remains uncertain. The brief, guarded communications from those inside the country offer a glimpse into a society yearning for change, but also bracing for further hardship. The IRGC’s response to the growing unrest, and the potential for external intervention, will determine the course of events in the coming weeks and months.