Here’s a breakdown of the key arguments presented in the article, organized for clarity:
Central Thesis: The article argues that rising US tariffs under President Trump are inadvertently fostering a stronger economic and strategic alliance between India, China, and Russia – a “India+2” dynamic that will reshape the global order.
Key Points & Supporting Arguments:
1.Rise of a Massive Consumer Market (Manish Bhandari): India, China, and Russia collectively represent a huge and growing consumer base (3.1 billion people, 37.8% of the world’s population). This market is resilient and represents a significant economic force.
2. US Dollar Dependence & Trade Wars (Sandeep Pandey): Trump’s tariffs are a way to maintain the US dollar’s dominance. Countries like India and China buying Russian oil in local currencies (avoiding the dollar) are seen as a challenge to this dominance,and the US is reacting to that. This is fueling a potential “currency war.”
3. US Defense Market Control (Sandeep Pandey): The tariffs are also aimed at maintaining US dominance in global arms sales. The US is pushing countries to buy defense equipment from the US or NATO allies, attempting to exclude Russia and China (and to some extent, India).
4. Military & Energy Power (Manish Bhandari): The combined military spending ($549 billion – 20.2% of the world total) and energy consumption (35% of global consumption) of these three nations demonstrate their growing power and influence.
5. Complementary Strengths & Partnership (Avinash Gorakshkar): The three countries have complementary economic strengths:
Russia: Cheap oil and energy.
China: Manufacturing hub.
India: Service hub.
This allows for a mutually beneficial partnership. Trump’s tariffs are pushing India and China to collaborate to offset lost export revenue.
6. India as a Dominating Partner (Manish Bhandari): Bhandari believes India will be the leading force in this alliance (“India+2” rather than “China+1”). Russia will provide resources,China will invest in India,and India will re-enter the global export market.
7. Bargaining Power with China (Gaurav Goel): the alliance gives India leverage in negotiations regarding China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). US tariffs and trade barriers are weakening China’s manufacturing advantage, and companies are shifting supply chains to countries like India and Vietnam.
Overall Tone: The article is optimistic about the potential of this India-China-Russia alliance, portraying it as a natural evolution of the global economy and a challenge to US hegemony.It suggests that Trump’s policies, while intended to benefit the US, are ironically accelerating the rise of a new world order.
