How real estate prices will develop up to 2030

16.9.2020 – Concrete gold remains a safe bank for buyers in many regions and cities in Germany. Because prices will continue to rise until 2030, and the Covid 19 virus will probably not change that, as Postbank’s residential atlas shows. Exceptions to this positive development are areas in the east, in southern Lower Saxony, northern Hesse and in the Ruhr area.

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The corona crisis cannot affect the upward trend in the German real estate market. Experts expect the prices for concrete gold to continue to rise in the current year. This particularly affects economically strong regions as well as metropolises. This is the result of an analysis of Postbank – a branch of Deutsche Bank AG, published in the “Wohnatlas 2020”.

The evaluation is an annual, multi-part series of studies that examines the German real estate market under various aspects from regional to district level. The current evaluation was carried out on behalf of the financial institution by the Hamburgisches Weltwirtschaftsinstitut gGmbH (HWWI) for 401 urban and rural districts.

Methodological information

The purchase price forecasts are based on assumptions about the future development of supply and demand for condominiums. Various regional data on population and age structure, household size, income development, housing expenditure and housing supply were included in the analysis, the authors explain.

The HWWI housing market model aims to understand how these factors influence one another. At the end of the model calculation, there is the purchase price forecast for the period 2019 to 2030. Although the calculations were based on data that were collected before the corona pandemic, “the forecast is likely to be largely stable,” according to the study.

No major break-ins from Corona

The current forecast of the experts is clear: “In more than half of the 401 German districts and cities, apartment owners can therefore expect their property to increase in real value by at least 2030.”

The HWWI sees one reason for this statement in the attraction of large German cities and the fat belts around the metropolises. “The population in and around the urban centers is likely to continue to rise,” said the authors of the residential atlas.

Although the consequences of the pandemic have not yet been included in the calculations, the institute does not expect major changes in the housing market. “We see no signs of a bubble that could burst as a result of the crisis. On the contrary: From our point of view, the real estate market is still an anchor of stability, ”says Eva Grunwald, Head of Postbank Real Estate.

Trend forecast up to 2030 (Image: Postbank)
Trend forecast up to 2030 (Image: Postbank)

House prices are increasing more significantly than apartments

However, there were changes in the real estate market in the second quarter of 2020: Loud F + B research and advice for housing, real estate and the environment GmbH The prices for single and two-family houses rose in the second quarter by 2.9 percent compared to the first quarter of this year.

Buyers of condominiums had to reckon with an increase of 1.3 percent on average, according to the consultants (VersicherungsJournal 11.8.2020).

The recently pointed to an undesirable development in the economically strong areas General Association of the German Insurance Industry eV (GDV): The cost of housing and living eats away at the necessary savings rate for retirement. Higher incomes in the metropolises no longer improved the pension reserves (September 7, 2020).

Demand determines prices

The authors of the Housing Atlas “do not rule out a second shutdown that will have significant effects on the housing market”. The experts attribute the decisive role for the demand situation to the income development in the respective regions.

They assume that prices will rise the most in some Bavarian districts, such as Munich, Erding, Ebersberg or Landsberg am Lech, over the next ten years.

Outside the Free State, the district of Cloppenburg has strong annual growth rates of two percent. According to the HWWI forecast, Heilbronn in Baden-Württemberg is the city with the strongest annual increase. The price trend is 1.8 percent.

The experts in Potsdam expect somewhat lower increases. For Brandenburg’s state capital, the calculations result in an annual increase of 1.74 percent until 2030.

Good forecasts for medium-sized cities in East and West

In addition to the large cities, medium-sized cities are also seeing a significant increase in demand. According to the evaluation, this includes Heilbronn, Potsdam, Leipzig, Freiburg im Breisgau, Münster, Dresden, Ingolstadt and Mainz as well as the two independent Bavarian medium-sized towns Landshut and Memmingen. Here the HWWI anticipate an increase in value of more than one percent by 2030.

In contrast, the authors of the Housing Atlas forecast losses for regions in the eastern German federal states due to the decline in population. Exceptions to this trend apply to the greater Berlin, Leipzig, Dresden, Jena and Weimar areas.

Owners in some regions in southern Lower Saxony, northern Hesse and the Ruhr area could also suffer losses for their property.

Price development in German cities from 2019 to 2030 of existing apartments

Rang

city

Price trend in percent

Price per square meter 2019

1

Munich

1,70

8.078,77

2

Düsseldorf

1,21

4.118,32

3

Cologne

1,06

3.967,09

4

Berlin

1,00

4.638,89

5

Hamburg

0,95

5.054,23

6

Stuttgart

0,91

4.589,24

7

Frankfurt am Main

0,80

5.686,62

Property in metropolitan areas remains safe

The winners of the boom are likely to be the owners of concrete gold in the big cities. According to the residential atlas, Munich remains the front runner. For the Bavarian capital, the experts predict an annual increase in purchase prices of 1.70 percent in real terms. Property buyers already had to invest an average of 8,079 euros per square meter in the metropolis in 2019.

According to the calculations, high increases are also to be expected in Düsseldorf and Cologne: In North Rhine-Westphalia’s state capital, the forecast increase is 1.21 percent per year. In the cathedral city, home ownership is likely to be on average 1.06 percent more expensive per year, according to the evaluation.

For Berlin, the expected price increases are one percent per year and thus significantly higher than forecast in the Housing Atlas 2019, which showed an annual increase of 0.76 percent (April 17, 2019). In Frankfurt am Main, prices will rise by 0.8 percent annually until 2030. This is the weakest increase among the so-called “Big Seven”, the largest German metropolises.

Investing in your own four walls no longer makes sense on the coasts and the Alps. Good offers that offer moderate prices compared to the local rents are only available in the center of Germany and in some medium-sized cities in the north and in the Ruhr area. This underlined the previous episode of the residential atlas (August 28, 2020).

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