Trump Considers Options to Support Machado Following Nobel Peace Prize Win, Navigating Legal and Diplomatic Constraints
WASHINGTON – Former President Donald Trump is weighing potential avenues to support Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado after she was jointly awarded the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize alongside iranian human rights activist Narges Mohammadi. The award, recognizing their fight against oppression, significantly elevates Machado’s profile as she seeks to challenge Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela‘s 2024 presidential elections, but also complicates the political landscape for any direct U.S.intervention. While Trump has previously expressed support for regime change in Venezuela, any assistance to Machado now must navigate existing sanctions, legal restrictions, and the Biden administration’s current foreign policy approach.
Machado’s Nobel Prize win intensifies pressure on the Maduro regime and underscores the dire humanitarian and political crisis in Venezuela. The stakes are high: a accomplished challenge to Maduro could reshape the geopolitical balance in Latin America, potentially impacting regional stability and U.S. energy interests. However, Machado is currently barred from holding public office by a 15-year disqualification imposed by the Maduro government, a move widely condemned internationally. The question now is how far Trump, potentially back in office in 2025, could go to aid Machado, given the constraints of U.S. law and international diplomacy.
Sources close to Trump indicate he is exploring several options, ranging from increased sanctions targeting maduro’s inner circle to diplomatic pressure on regional actors to recognize a potential Machado victory. A key consideration is the potential for leveraging existing sanctions authorities, originally imposed under Executive order 13850 in 2017, to further isolate the Maduro regime.Though, legal experts caution that any actions must be carefully calibrated to avoid unintended consequences and accusations of interference in Venezuelan internal affairs.
“The Trump administration previously demonstrated a willingness to utilize aggressive sanctions, but even those were subject to legal review,” explained Professor Raúl Gallegos, a specialist in Latin American politics at georgetown University. “Any new measures would face even greater scrutiny given the current political climate and the Biden administration’s existing policy framework.”
Beyond sanctions, Trump could attempt to rally international support for Machado, potentially through direct engagement with leaders in Colombia, Brazil, and Argentina - countries that have expressed concerns about the situation in Venezuela. He could also utilize his extensive network of political allies to lobby for increased pressure on the Maduro regime within international organizations like the Association of American States.
Though, direct financial or logistical support to Machado’s campaign is highly likely to be legally problematic. U.S. law prohibits providing material assistance to foreign political campaigns, and any such action could be interpreted as a violation of Venezuelan sovereignty. Moreover, the Biden administration has maintained a policy of engaging with the Maduro regime in limited negotiations, primarily focused on securing the release of detained americans and restarting oil production. Trump’s approach could potentially derail those fragile talks.
The Nobel Committee’s decision to award Machado the prize has undoubtedly strengthened her position and increased international awareness of the situation in venezuela. Whether that translates into tangible political change will depend, in part, on the extent to which external actors - including a potential second Trump administration – are willing to support her efforts, while navigating the complex legal and diplomatic challenges involved.The Venezuelan presidential election is scheduled for the second half of 2024, setting a firm timeline for any potential intervention.
