## Online Holiday Spending Projected to Grow Despite Economic Concerns: Adobe Report
Despite a backdrop of economic uncertainty,online holiday spending is forecast to increase this year,according to a new report from Adobe. While growth is expected to slow compared to last year, it will still represent “pronounced growth” given current economic pressures, stated Vivek Pandya, Adobe’s director of digital insights.
Adobe anticipates total online holiday spending to grow, driven by consumers feeling a greater “onus and a drive” to purchase goods during the holiday season and a tendency to stockpile items in anticipation of price volatility. Cyber Week - the period from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday – is projected to be the peak spending time, accounting for 17.2%, or $43.7 billion, of overall online holiday revenue. This is consistent with the 17% share Cyber Week represented in the previous year.
However, the overall holiday sales picture is more nuanced.Adobe’s data focuses solely on e-commerce, estimating that roughly one in four dollars of total holiday sales will be spent online. Broader forecasts, encompassing both in-store and online spending, suggest more moderate growth than recent years. Bain & Company projects a 4% year-over-year increase in total holiday spending, a decline from the 10-year average of 5.2%.
Consumer surveys indicate a potential pullback in overall spending. A pwc survey of 4,000 U.S. consumers found that individuals plan to spend approximately 5% less – averaging $1,552 – on gifts, travel, and entertainment compared to last year. This decrease is particularly pronounced among Gen Z,who reported plans to spend 23% less.
Discounting levels are expected to be similar to the previous year,with slight reductions in some categories. Electronics are projected to be discounted by up to 28% (compared to 30.1% last year), and toys by 27% (down from 28%).Mobile devices are expected to continue their dominance in online shopping, accounting for 56.1% of online holiday spending, a significant increase from the 40% recorded during the 2020 holiday season. Adobe also anticipates a 520% year-over-year increase in traffic to generative AI-powered chat services and browsers as consumers utilize these tools for gift research, with peak traffic expected leading up to Thanksgiving.
The report acknowledges ongoing economic concerns, including rising prices from tariffs and declining consumer confidence, which are complicating the outlook for the shopping season.
