Delhi Blast Escalates India-Pakistan Tensions, Response remains Cautious
A recent explosion near the Red Fort in Delhi has heightened already strained tensions between India and Pakistan. The Indian government officially declared the incident a terrorist act and passed a resolution vowing to bring the perpetrators to justice. Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw stated the investigation woudl be pursued “with utmost urgency and professionalism,so that the perpetrators,their collaborators and their sponsors are identified and brought to justice without delay.” He further affirmed “India’s unwavering commitment to a policy of zero tolerance towards terrorism in all its forms and manifestations.”
Despite these strong statements, the Indian government has adopted a cautious approach to officially attributing the attack to Pakistan or the militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM). While unnamed investigators have reportedly pointed to JeM’s involvement, authorities have not provided new evidence to support that attribution.
This restraint appears to stem from the repercussions of previous strong rhetoric following attacks in Pahalgam,which led to military clashes.Analysts suggest this creates a “commitment trap,” where policymakers feel bound by prior statements that are tough to enact during a crisis.
India-Pakistan relations have been fraught with tension for years, exacerbated by clashes earlier this year. Despite Indian successes in limited conflicts in April and May,a perceived lack of effective public diplomacy left the Indian public dissatisfied. Further complicating matters, India has faced geopolitical challenges, including unfavorable tariffs imposed by the United States and concerns that the US is favoring Pakistan, even backing Pakistani claims regarding fighter jet losses during the February clash. Pakistan has also strengthened ties with the United States, notably endorsing President Donald Trump’s bid for a Nobel Peace Prize.
Pakistan continues to receive strong support from China, a relationship India is attempting to rebuild, though a return to previous levels of cooperation appears unlikely.
The Indian government’s response to the Red Fort attack remains uncertain. The prior discovery of the broader plot by Indian intelligence agencies may lessen the pressure for a forceful reaction. The comparatively measured rhetoric following this attack, in contrast to the response after the April incident, also suggests a potential avoidance of military escalation. Though, India has demonstrated a reduced concern about escalation in recent years, and Pakistan’s continued use of terror tactics could still lead to further conflict.
