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The Iranian Foreign Minister, abbas Araghchi, has responded to the possibility of renewed sanctions, asserting that European nations lack the legal authority to implement the JCPOA‘s snapback mechanism.
The three European countries involved in upcoming discussions with iran,collectively known as the E3,are seeking Iran’s renewed cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). IAEA inspectors departed Iran after Tehran suspended collaboration following U.S. actions against nuclear sites in June.Additionally, the E3 aim for Iran to re-engage in substantive negotiations concerning the limitation or cessation of its uranium enrichment activities.
Suzanne DiMaggio, affiliated with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, suggests that while the threat of snapback might offer leverage to the Europeans, reimposing international sanctions on Iran would considerably escalate tensions and likely preclude future engagement.DiMaggio proposes that the E3 should rather focus on innovative strategies, such as establishing a framework to restore cooperation between Tehran and the IAEA in exchange for an extension of the snapback period. She believes that such an understanding could pave the way for the resumption of U.S.-Iran talks.
DiMaggio, who has extensive experience in unofficial dialogues with Iran and other nations to foster negotiations, acknowledges that the path forward is fraught with “immense” challenges due to the profound level of distrust.
The reimposition of UN sanctions would severely impact Iran’s economy,wich is already struggling under years of international sanctions.
According to Lesser of the German Marshall Fund, Iran has its own set of priorities for the upcoming discussions. One key objective is to maintain its right to enrich nuclear material,which Iranian officials state is for peaceful,civilian purposes. Independent assessments indicated that prior to Israeli and U.S. bombardments, Iran had accumulated sufficient material to construct multiple nuclear weapons. Lesser further notes that Iran’s second concern will be to secure some form of security guarantees through nuclear diplomacy, protecting them from further strikes.
On Thursday,Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister,Kazem gharibabadi,indicated Iran’s readiness to participate in discussions regarding its nuclear program with the United States,contingent upon Washington taking concrete steps to rebuild trust.
Despite these developments, internal divisions within the Iranian government regarding the appropriate course of action are possible. Some more moderate factions may favor resuming nuclear talks to avert sanctions snapback or further military action by the U.S.or Israel. Conversely, hard-liners in Tehran, incensed by U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, might advocate for advancing their nuclear weapons program.
Analysts anticipate that a definitive agreement is unlikely to emerge from Friday’s discussions, but they view the continuation of diplomatic channels as a positive development.
