Donald Trump, USA | Want Trump as leader, but on one issue there is complete division

The United States and the world are eagerly awaiting whether Donald Trump will try again at the White House.


NEW YORK (Nettavisen): There is controversy within the Republican Party about how crucial former President Donald Trump can be for the future.

In a recent measurement from CNN it turns out that there is great division among the Republicans. But the poll also shows what a strong position Trump has within the party.

63 percent want Trump

The poll, which was conducted among Republicans and those who sympathize with the party, shows that 63 percent of those polled want Trump to be the party’s leader, while 37 percent believe he should not lead the party.

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As for whether Trump should run in the 2024 presidential election, and his chances of taking back the White House, however, there is full division in the party.

Here, 51 percent of those polled say that the party has a greater chance of winning back the White House if Trump is running as a candidate, while 49 percent think the party will have a greater chance of getting the president if they ran for another candidate.

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According to CNN This is a big difference from a similar poll in 2019, when more than three quarters of those polled thought that Trump was the right man to lead the party into the White House.

– And personalistisk gone

– Trump’s strong position is due to the fact that the party has become a personalist party. That is, a party characterized by the leader’s personal dominance. We see it both among the voters and in the party apparatus. The anti-Trump wing is small and weak, says US expert Hilmar Mjelde in a comment on the CNN poll.

The poll also shows that there is great disagreement within the party, when you look at the Republicans’ background.

While 69 percent of those without a university background believe Trump should lead the party, only 49 percent of those with a university education think the same.

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There is also great agreement within the party that Trump was robbed of the election. As many as 6 out of 10 say that they support Trump, and support him in that he was the real winner of the presidential election in 2020, and that belief in this is a very important part of the identity and what it means to be a Republican for them today. .

– Voter loyalty has shifted to Trump

– Normally, the parties get rid of a losing presidential candidate. Not since Adlai Stevenson has one of the American parties nominated a losing presidential candidate again four years later. But the loyalty of the Republican voters has shifted to Trump rather than the party, says Mjelde, who is a senior researcher at the NORCE research center in Bergen and an expert on American politics.

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“It also has a lot to say that the entire evening series on Fox News consists of Trump supporters,” says the US expert.

– And then the political, cultural and geographical center of gravity in the party has shifted to the southern states over many decades. There we find a type of voters who prefer Trump- and Trump-like candidates. The southern states are Trump’s natural voter base.

– So it is not difficult to explain his continued popularity in the party, Mjelde says.

Republicans most enthusiastic

The survey also raises the temperature of expectations towards next year’s midterm elections. Here, as many as 28 percent answer that they are very enthusiastic about voting in connection with the congressional election next year. This is up sharply from 2017, when only 18 percent said they were very enthusiastic about the midterm elections.

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When it comes to the 2022 election, it is the Republicans with their 30 percent who answer that they are most enthusiastic, against 26 percent among the Democrats.

Mjelde tells Nettavisen that the question now is what happens if some heavyweights dare to challenge Trump in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election.

– DeSantis in Florida, in particular. Many Democrats probably wanted to vote for Bernie Sanders again in 2020, but chose sensible marriage with Biden. Similarly, we see many Republicans wondering if, for example, DeSantis would be a better choice than Trump in 2024, says US expert Hilmar Mjelde to Nettavisen.

Also read: – The system is rigged in Trump’s favor

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