Does signing Jalen Brunson for the New York Knicks make sense? The analysis of one of the key movements of the Free Agency 2022

It has almost become a tradition. Every two or three seasons New York Knicks they manage to clear salaries and open margin with respect to the limit to be able to be aggressive during the Free Agency. Rumors surface for months that this or that star will head to the Big Apple, but when the market opens, the reality is quite different. High salaries are given, the problem is that not to first level names, not even in a second step, but to figures with the potential to be there or who will never directly achieve the expected performance.

In this 2022 everything points to the circle being closed again. For weeks different insiders like Marc Stein, Adrian Wojnarowski o Chris Haynes They have published the interest of the Knicks to take over Jalen Brunson. This, which has all the logic in the world because the point guard has taken a great leap forward, loses strength when looking at the salary figures that have been leaked. The New York franchise is preparing an offer of 110 million dollars for the next four campaigns that will take Brunson to receive 25 million dollars in 2022-2023 with a 5% annual increase.

To carry out this movement, the New York team has shed Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel y Kemba Walker, three key players in Tom Thibodeau’s rotation one way or another, as well as several draft picks, including 2022. This leaves a clear message, the Knicks want Brunson at any price. However, Does this transfer make sense?

MORE | Where will Jalen Brunson play? Possible teams, contract, situation and future in the NBA 2022 Free Agency

Does signing Jalen Brunson for the Knicks make sense?

The Knicks have seen Jalen Brunson as the answer to their midcourt woes. RJ Barrett and Julius Randle work well on offense, being able to attack the rim and shoot from midrange fairly solidly.

However, they lack a player who can handle the offense in all kinds of situations as well as spread the field and shoot 3s. The figure formed in Villanova had a 58.3% in true shot percentage (TS%), although he showed problems in suspension from long distance (31.3%).

The absence of someone who can direct the attack as a pure base was a recurring problem for Thibs this past season, but the arrival of Brunson would not solve much of this either. In Regular Phase he averaged 7.5 assists per 100 possessions, correct data, but in the Playoffs this fell to 5.4 for every 100. It can be argued that the role played by the young man in Dallas was conditioned by the presence of Luka Doncic, that had a massive offensive use, but when the Slovenian was out or did not play the landscape was not very different.

MORE | NBA 2022 transfer market, up to date: rumors, transfers, news and more from Free Agency

However, the question is not so much whether or not Brunson should be the signing the Knicks should make, but rather whether or not the price they are willing to pay makes sense. The range of $110 million over four years is too high for a player who in his fourth year of career has managed to take off with 16.3 average points and 54.9% effective shooting percentage in the Regular Phase in a role of slasher. In fact, that salary would be what the Mavs expect, not so much because it is worth it (which is debatable) but because losing it would prevent them from making any other incorporation in Free Agency by losing their rights Bird.

Brunson’s potential arrival at Madison Square Garden is a very high risk move for a Knicks who know well what it is overpay mid-level players. They did it with Evan Fournier in 2021 (78M for 4 years), they did it with Bobby Portis (15M for one year) and they did it with Julius Randle in 2019 (37M for two years), even though he justified it in the second year.

this movement it would be the final piece in a much more complete framework within an established project, not so much the addition that should propel a team to the next level. Having seen Brunson’s last four courses, including his 2022 Playoffs, doubts about this bet are justified, but the Knicks are confident that his potential will not stop from now on.

New York Knicks futures contracts

Player 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 2026-2027
Julius Randle 23.7M 25.6M 27.5M 29.4M**
Evan Fournier 18M 18,8M 19M *
Derrick Rose 14.5M 15.5M *
RJ Barrett 10.9M
Cam Reddish 5.9M
Obi Toppin 5,3M 6,8M
That Gibson 5.1M
Immanuel Quickley 2,3M 4.1M
Quentin Grimes 2,2M 2,3M* 4,2M*
Miles McBride 1.5M 1,8M*

(*) Team Option | (**) Player option | Italics or italics, partially guaranteed

The opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent the NBA or its organizations.

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