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The current low cost of certain technologies means that demand, even without additional incentives, will likely continue to drive thes costs down further.This trend strongly suggests that decarbonisation will progress regardless of specific policy interventions. Even in the United States,following the passage of the “Big Gorgeous Bill,” emissions are projected to decrease,though perhaps at a slower pace than could be achieved with more aggressive measures.
despite these cost reductions, subsidies can still distort market signals and are generally less cost-effective for reducing emissions than a carbon price would be. Therefore, implementing a charge for emissions is advisable when politically feasible, particularly when it does not directly impact voters. Governments should also eliminate existing subsidies that negatively affect the climate, such as those still supporting fossil fuels.
Efforts should be intensified to mitigate the negative impacts of decarbonisation on ordinary citizens.For instance,forcing individuals to adopt technologies like heat pumps when there is a shortage of qualified installers should be avoided. facilitating the transition to electric vehicles can be achieved by expanding charging infrastructure and permitting the import of more affordable electric vehicles from China. This same principle of reducing hardship should be applied to adaptation strategies.Marine Le Pen, a prominent French populist, resonated with voters by highlighting the disparity between the elite’s access to air conditioning and the lack thereof for the general population.As long as Donald Trump remains in office, the United States will serve as a cautionary example.While certain promising clean energy technologies, such as advanced geothermal and potentially fusion power, now enjoy bipartisan backing, Mr. Trump’s opposition to climate action will ultimately disadvantage the country. At a time of increasing energy demand, partly driven by the need to power artificial intelligence-a national security priority-energy prices are expected to rise. Furthermore, initiatives aimed at developing a domestic renewables industry to compete with China’s will likely falter.
Voters universally prefer environmental cleanliness over pollution and a future of prosperity over one perceived as precarious. These preferences represent more compelling motivations than abstract targets. Narratives that foster a sense of public participation in progress continue to be well-received. The prospect of insulation from volatile fossil fuel prices also holds significant appeal. While the phrase “the art of the possible” might sound uninspiring, a political approach focused on new opportunities could establish a more lasting foundation for climate policy and offer a sense of hope. This is the message that those advocating for climate action need to convey.
