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Chinese local governments are now at the center of a structural shift involving fertility incentives. The immediate implication is heightened fiscal exposure with uncertain returns for China’s demographic balance.
The Strategic Context
China’s post‑2000 fertility trajectory has turned negative, driven by a combination of the one‑child legacy, rising living costs, and an aging population. The central leadership has repeatedly signaled the need to “reverse population decline,” yet national policy levers remain limited, prompting sub‑national authorities to experiment with cash subsidies for assisted reproductive technologies (
