Dalai Lama Defies China, Lays Out Succession Plan

Spiritual leader announces reincarnation process amid Beijing’s interference.

Ahead of his 90th birthday, the **Dalai Lama** has made a significant declaration regarding his reincarnation, setting the stage for a potential clash with the Chinese government, which seeks control over the succession.

Succession Announcement

In a video address to monks and Tibetan leaders, the **Dalai Lama**, **Tenzin Gyatso**, affirmed that he would be reincarnated after his death. He stipulated that only his inner circle of monks would have the authority to identify his successor, adhering to centuries-old traditions.

“No one else has any such authority to interfere in this matter,” the **Dalai Lama** stated, ending speculation about alternative succession methods.

Beijing’s Rejection

This announcement directly challenges the Communist Party in China, which insists it alone possesses the authority to choose the next **Dalai Lama**, a right enshrined in Chinese law.

However, the message from the **Dalai Lama** struck a more diplomatic tone by not repeating previous statements that his successor would be born in the “free world,” according to **Tansen Sen**, a scholar of Indo-Chinese relations and Buddhism.

Despite this, Chinese media has not reported on the **Dalai Lama**’s announcement, signaling Beijing’s unease with the news reaching Tibetans and Chinese citizens, according to **Robert Barnett**, a scholar of Tibetan history at Soas University of London.

Historical Context

Since China’s invasion and control of Tibet in 1950, and the subsequent failed uprising in 1959, the **Dalai Lama** has lived in exile in India, establishing a political and religious headquarters in Dharamshala.

India has provided refuge to the **Dalai Lama**, a move that has long strained relations with China. In a shift, **Kiren Rijiju**, India’s minister of minority affairs, publicly stated that the reincarnation of the **Dalai Lama** is to be decided by the **Dalai Lama** himself, which drew immediate criticism from China.

China has warned against interference in the **Dalai Lama**’s reincarnation, with a spokesperson for the foreign ministry, **Mao Ning**, saying his successor “must be chosen by drawing lots from a golden urn and approved by the central government”.

Future Scenarios

Analysts anticipate a dual succession scenario: one **Dalai Lama** chosen by Tibetan monks, likely outside China, and another selected by the Chinese Communist Party within China.

According to Freedom House, in 2023, Tibet was rated as the second-least free region in the world, with severe restrictions on religious freedom and expression (Freedom House 2023).

**Amitabh Mathur**, a former adviser on Tibet to the Indian government, believes that **Dalai Lama**’s office likely informed New Delhi about the reincarnation announcement beforehand. He added that the geopolitical challenges are expected to escalate post his death, especially if the reincarnation is found within India, defying China.

Despite the looming challenges, the **Dalai Lama**, in good health, expressed optimism about his longevity, stating, “I hope to live another 30 or 40 years.”