Assessing the Likelihood of New Glenn Booster Recovery
Blue Origin’s recent New Glenn launch marked a critically important step in the company’s ambition to create a reusable rocket system. While the attempt to recover the first stage booster, nicknamed “Never Tell Me The Odds,” ultimately wasn’t successful, the effort builds upon lessons learned from SpaceX‘s pioneering work with the Falcon 9. SpaceX’s initial attempts at controlled landings were a lengthy process. It took untill the ninth flight to achieve a controlled ocean landing, and subsequent attempts to land on a drone ship weren’t successful until the 23rd launch in April 2016.
The challenge of safely returning an orbital-class rocket to Earth, notably to a small platform at sea, is significant. While early estimates suggested extremely low probabilities of success – some as low as 3,720-to-1 – a 75% success rate is also unlikely for a second flight of a new rocket. Blue Origin benefits from the experience of engineers who previously worked on the Falcon 9 program, but the inherent difficulty remains.
Financial viability of the New Glenn program hinges on successful and rapid reuse of its expensive first stage components. Manufacturing costs for a New glenn first stage exceed $100 million, and the design incorporates features intended to facilitate quick turnaround between flights. Though, these benefits are only realized if the booster is recovered in good condition.
Blue Origin’s current plan involves refurbishing “Never tell Me The Odds” for the third New Glenn flight, intended to launch the Mark 1 lunar lander. The projected 90-day refurbishment timeline appears enterprising, given SpaceX’s experience. SpaceX required 356 days of analysis and refurbishment before re-flying its first recovered booster, and didn’t attempt to reuse the very first booster it landed.
While a precise probability of success remains undisclosed, the endeavor underscores Blue Origin’s commitment to innovation and contributes to the overall dynamism of the space industry.
