Blick assesses Europe military intelligence and energy vulnerability
As transatlantic tensions mount, European capitals confront the stark reality of potential American disengagement under US Donald Trump, whom NATO General Mark Rutte recently referred to as “Daddy,” according to a dependency assessment published by Blick. Four and a half years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the European Union remains acutely vulnerable in military intelligence and energy supply, even as defense spending climbs and joint munitions production accelerates across the continent.
Defying Washington on Greenland and Iran
Europe has begun to show unprecedented diplomatic friction against Washington’s unilateral policy directives. When Donald Trump threatened to annex Greenland, European governments united firmly behind Denmark, with media reports indicating that Danish authorities prepared to crater domestic runways to block potential American troop landings. A similar display of collective defiance materialized over US military actions targeting Iran, where zero European nations lent political or logistical support to the campaign.
The Critical Gap in Early Warning Systems and Satellite Infrastructure
Despite these displays of diplomatic resolve, European defense architectures remain dangerously dependent on American space assets. While the EU operates the Galileo civil navigation network, military reconnaissance capabilities lag behind. The bloc is currently funding Iris2—a 16-euro-billion alternative to Elon Musk’s Starlink—with the first of 348 satellites scheduled for launch in 2029 and full operational capacity expected around 2032. Until then, drone operators in Ukraine and domestic European defense forces rely entirely on US infrastructure.
Long-range missile detection exposes an even wider vulnerability. Only the United States possesses the space-based infrared satellite systems, known as SBIRS, required to track thermal signatures of intercontinental launches globally within minutes. The operational danger of this monopoly materialized in Kyiv, where Russian missiles struck residential areas entirely without warning due to missing or unshared telemetry data.
Weapon Imports Versus Domestic Industrial Spurt
European defense budgets are expanding, but procurement streams continue to favor American manufacturing over homegrown alternatives. According to data compiled by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), roughly 60 percent of all imported weaponry purchased by European states originates from United States defense contractors—an identical proportion to a decade prior. Switzerland exemplifies this trend through pending acquisitions of US-built F-35 fighter jets and Patriot missile defense batteries.
Counterbalancing these foreign imports, domestic production of conventional ordnance shows tangible momentum. New munitions factories are rising in Germany, new powder manufacturing plants are active in France, and joint industrial ventures involving the United Kingdom, Norway, and Ukraine are actively producing frontline drones.
Swapping Russian Pipelines for American Liquid Gas
The elimination of direct Russian oil and natural gas deliveries has triggered an unprecedented reliance on American energy exports. Before the war in Ukraine, European imports of US liquefied natural gas stood at 28 percent; today, that figure has surged to 62 percent, with Germany alone sourcing 95 percent of its LNG from American terminals. To codify this shift, the European Union signed an energy pact with Donald Trump in the summer of 2025, committing the bloc to purchase 750 billion dollars in American energy supplies through 2028.
Europe Seeks Canadian Cooperation and Ukrainian Defense Innovation
Looking beyond traditional transatlantic channels, European policymakers are exploring alternative partnerships. Late in October 2026, European and Canadian officials convene in Montréal to deepen bilateral energy and security cooperation. Simultaneously, EU accession negotiations with Ukraine advance toward critical stages, offering Brussels access to a wartime military-industrial sector that has rapidly engineered low-cost defense solutions.
Among these innovations is the joint European-Ukrainian Freyja missile interception system, slated for initial live-fire testing in 2027. Designed to replace the costly US Patriot defense architecture at roughly a quarter of the expense, Freyja represents the type of indigenous capability European defense planners require to achieve strategic autonomy.
Whether Washington will maintain its security guarantees until these domestic alternatives mature is unaddressed, leaving continental capitals to manage a high-stakes transition on an accelerated timeline.