Bitcoin Trades Near $78,000 as Shinhan Projects 2027 Recovery
Bitcoin entered November trading around $78,000 following a sharp drop from its all-time high of $126,000 recorded in October last year and a mid-year low of $58,000, according to data from CoinGecko cited by Asia Economy. Analysts point to the four-year halving cycle to project a recovery phase that could push prices between $75,000 and $155,000 by 2027.
The Broken Uptober Expectation
Expectations for an October rally—colloquially termed “Uptober”—fizzled out as the asset faced persistent macroeconomic headwinds. Yang Hyung-kyung, a researcher at iM Securities, noted that while Bitcoin’s historical average return for October between 2010 and 2026 sat at 24.11%, this year recorded a 7.32% decline, as reported by Asia Economy.
The downswing stemmed from rising interest rate pressures, caution surrounding artificial intelligence investments, capital outflows from spot exchange-traded funds, and security breaches on the Binance exchange, according to iM Securities.
Yang Hyung-kyung analyzed that the expectation for an October rally was voided as this year’s performance fell below the average, with downward pressure expanding due to a combination of weakened preference for risky assets, spot ETF fund outflows, and the Binance hacking incident.
Halving Cycles and 2027 Price Projections
Despite the current consolidation below the $80,000 threshold, institutional forecasts point toward a structural rebound as the next halving approaches. Shinhan Securities projected a 2027 price range of $75,000 to $155,000, with yearly peaks anticipated between $125,000 and $155,000.
Park Sung-je, a researcher at Shinhan Securities, explained that historical cycles in 2016, 2020, and 2024 all registered market peaks 17 to 18 months after a halving event. With the next supply reduction scheduled for April 2028, the subsequent market cycle peak is expected in the second half of 2029, making 2027 the primary accumulation and recovery window.
| Metric / Indicator | Current Status | Projected Range / Target |
|---|---|---|
| Current Trading Range | ~$78,000 | Support at $78,000–$82,000 |
| 2027 Price Forecast (Shinhan) | – | $75,000 – $155,000 |
| 2027 Peak Range (Shinhan) | – | $125,000 – $155,000 |
| MVRV Target Multiplier | – | 2.05 – 2.25x |
Shinhan Securities expects the magnitude of future price gains to moderate as market capitalization deepens and volatility contracts. Park noted that the price multiple from cycle troughs downshifted from 4.0 times in 2019 to 2.9 times in 2023, leading analysts to apply conservative valuation models based on realized capitalization and MVRV ratios between 2.05 and 2.25.
Institutional Cost Basis Defines Immediate Support Levels
Immediate downside protection rests between $78,000 and $82,000. Park calculated that the average acquisition cost for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs hovered near $82,000 in mid-October, while on-chain active investors held a cost basis around $78,000.
Clearing the heavy accumulation zone between $88,000 and $100,000 remains the primary hurdle for reclaiming previous highs. Regulatory clarity in the United States, wider corporate adoption of on-chain accounting, and stabilization in real interest rates will dictate whether institutional inflows accelerate strongly enough to define the trajectory through 2027.