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Russian forces are sustaining significant casualties – “thousands” per mile advanced – as the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year, according to Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, chair of the NATO Military Committee. The assessment, delivered during an interview at the Chatham House Security and Defense 2026 event in London on Wednesday, coincides with the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, marked by a ceremony and a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council in Brussels on February 24th.
Dragone indicated that, should a peace deal be reached, Russia could rebuild its pre-war military capabilities within three to five years. He described the Russian military as “strong” and “resilient,” anticipating a conventional force that NATO will need to counter along its eastern flank for decades to come. “They will be busy on that battlefield for as long as is necessary — we hope very, very shortly that it will come to a point. Right after that, I think that they will rebuild,” Dragone said.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte echoed the need for sustained support for Ukraine, urging Western allies to significantly increase military, financial, and humanitarian aid. “This support is essential. Ukraine needs more, because a promise of help does not end the war,” Rutte stated at a ceremony at NATO headquarters, adding that Ukraine needs ammunition “today and every day until the bloodshed stops.”
Ukraine’s ambassador to NATO, Alyona Getmanchuk, emphasized the direct link between Western aid and Ukraine’s negotiating position, stating that “every additional air‑defence system, every delivery of ammunition, every interceptor missile not only saves lives – it strengthens Ukraine’s position at the negotiating table.”
Rutte reiterated the conditions for a lasting peace, emphasizing the need for Ukraine to maintain strong forces capable of deterring future aggression, backed by security guarantees from Europe, Canada, and the United States. “There cannot be true peace in Europe without real peace in Ukraine,” he said.
The assessment of potential Russian recovery comes four years after the Kremlin launched what it termed a “special military operation” expecting a swift victory. Initial Russian advances were met with tactical and strategic failures, forcing a withdrawal from territory captured in the north, northeast, and south of Ukraine.
The “Coalition of the Willing” supporting Kyiv convened Tuesday to mark the four-year anniversary of the invasion, with ongoing discussions focused on bolstering Ukraine’s defenses and securing long-term security commitments. No immediate announcements followed the meeting regarding increased aid packages or security guarantees.
