More than 220 million children worldwide could be obese by 2040 if drastic action isn’t taken, according to a new report released today by the World Obesity Federation. The 2026 World Obesity Atlas estimates that approximately 227 million 5- to 19-year-olds will have obesity, with over half a billion overweight by the end of the decade.
The report, released on World Obesity Day, reveals a significant increase from the estimated 180 million obese children globally in 2025. It warns that at least 120 million school-age children will exhibit early signs of chronic diseases linked to high body mass index (BMI), where a BMI of 30 or above is considered obese and over 25 is overweight.
“It is not right to condemn a generation to obesity and the chronic and potentially fatal non-communicable diseases that often go with it,” said Johanna Ralston, Chief Executive of the World Obesity Federation. Her statement underscores a growing concern that the global rise in childhood obesity represents a systemic failure to prioritize preventative health measures.
The crisis is not evenly distributed. China currently has the highest number of obese children, with 62 million 5- to 19-year-olds classified as having a high BMI. India follows with 41 million, and the United States ranks third with 27 million, representing two in five children who are either obese or overweight. The United Kingdom is also facing a record number of children with high BMI, with approximately 3.8 million affected – a figure that surpasses rates in France and Italy.
The World Obesity Atlas projects that by 2040, 370,000 children aged 5-19 in the UK will show early signs of cardiovascular disease, and a further 271,000 are expected to exhibit signs of hypertension. These projections highlight the long-term health consequences of inaction.
The report identifies a stark regional disparity, noting that countries in the western Pacific region and the Americas are disproportionately affected, with more than half of school-age children overweight or obese. Yet, the fastest growth in obesity rates is occurring in low- and middle-income countries, suggesting a widening global health inequity.
Experts are calling for comprehensive policy interventions to address the crisis. Dr. Kremlin Wickramasinghe, regional advisor for nutrition, physical activity and obesity at the World Health Organization, Europe, described childhood obesity as a “failure of environments,” advocating for mandatory restrictions on marketing unhealthy foods to children and clearer front-of-pack labeling. “The majority of governments – including many in Europe – are allowing the food industry to target children without restriction,” he stated, emphasizing the need for stronger political will to counter industry influence.
Katharine Jenner, Executive Director of the Obesity Health Alliance, asserted that childhood obesity is “not inevitable.” She warned that the projected increase in early signs of heart disease and hypertension should serve as a “wake-up call” regarding the consequences of continued government inaction.
The UK Department of Health and Social Care responded by stating that it is restricting junk food advertising on television before 9pm and online, a measure expected to remove up to 7.2 billion calories per year from children’s diets, and is granting local authorities greater authority to limit fast food outlets near schools.
