Donald Trump has suggested the potential for a U.S. Navy escort of tankers through critical waterways, responding to heightened tensions following threats from Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz. The prospect of a blockade has already sent ripples through global energy markets, though the most significant impact may not be felt in Europe.
According to reports from Iranian media, a high-ranking commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced Monday that the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, warning that any vessel attempting passage would be considered a target. This declaration has raised concerns about the security of global oil supplies.
The Strait of Hormuz, situated between Oman and Iran, is a vital artery for worldwide oil trade. Energy consultancy Kpler estimates that approximately 13 million barrels of oil per day transited the strait in 2025, representing roughly 27-30% of all seaborne oil flows.
While the United States considers potential responses, including naval escorts, the immediate consequences of a prolonged closure are expected to be most acutely felt in Asia, particularly China. China is the world’s largest importer of crude oil, purchasing over 80% of Iran’s oil exports, according to Kpler data.
However, analysts suggest China possesses a degree of resilience. “China is significantly exposed, but more flexible,” Move Katayama, an analyst at Kpler, told CNBC. Approximately 30% of China’s LNG imports originate from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, while around 40% of its oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, estimates from UBP indicate.
The potential for price increases is substantial. A prolonged closure could drive oil prices higher, with some analysts predicting a surge above $100 per barrel. Brent crude, the global benchmark, already rose to over $80 a barrel on Tuesday.
Beyond China, other Asian nations face significant vulnerabilities. According to a Nomura analysis, Thailand, India, South Korea, and the Philippines are particularly susceptible to higher oil prices due to their heavy reliance on imports. Malaysia, as an energy exporter, may comparatively benefit from the situation.
South Asia is anticipated to experience the most substantial disruptions, especially regarding LNG supplies. Qatar and the United Arab Emirates account for 99% of Pakistan’s LNG imports, 72% of Bangladesh’s, and 53% of India’s, Kpler data shows. Pakistan and Bangladesh, with limited storage and supply flexibility, are considered especially vulnerable.
India faces the largest overall exposure in the region, with over half of its LNG imports and 60% of its oil imports originating from the Middle East, according to UBP.
Japan and South Korea are also heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil, with 75% and 70% of their respective imports coming from the region, UBP reports. Shier Lee Lim, a strategist at payment platform Convera, told CNBC that economies highly dependent on energy imports, such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, are more vulnerable to supply shocks.
The situation is further complicated by reports that Qatar, a major LNG supplier, halted production Monday following Iranian drone attacks on its industrial facilities in Ras Laffan and Mesaieed. Polish energy company Orlen imports LNG from Qatar.
