American Tower anticipates continued weak growth and operational challenges in Latin America through the next several quarters, driven significantly by telecommunications company consolidation and contract cancellations, commonly known as churn. The company’s Chief Financial Officer, Rodney Smith, detailed the forecast to investors during an earnings call, projecting an approximate 3% decline in organic tenant revenue in the region for 2026.
Smith attributed this decline to a complex interplay of factors, including approximately 2% contribution from colocations and amendments, roughly 4% increases linked to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), an estimated 8% churn rate and other adverse revenue impacts totaling around 1%. CPI-linked adjustments are contractual clauses that increase rental payments from mobile network operators to tower companies based on inflation rates.
“As communicated in recent years, we have been forecasting low single-digit organic growth in LatAm through the end of 2027 due to high churn related to consolidation in Brazil, and that organic growth will accelerate in 2028 once that churn has passed,” Smith stated. He further clarified that the increased churn in 2026 stems from “a combination of churn delayed from initially expected in 2025 and churn accelerated from initially expected in 2027.”
The challenging landscape in Latin America coincides with broader shifts in the telecommunications infrastructure market. IHS Towers recently exited the region after selling its operations in Colombia and Brazil to Macquarie, signaling a recalibration of investment strategies. Wholesale fiber networks established in recent years have underperformed expectations, prompting telecom operators to repurchase these assets.
American Tower itself sold its fiber business in Mexico in 2023 for $252 million, reflecting a strategic shift away from fiber infrastructure. The company had already reduced its capital expenditure plans for Latin America in 2025, scaling back the construction of new sites due to weaker-than-anticipated demand, influenced by operator mergers and acquisitions. Customers including TIM Brasil, Telefônica Brasil, and AT&T Mexico have been driving contract renegotiations and prioritizing the use of existing sites over new builds for their antennas.
Despite these headwinds, American Tower anticipates future improvements in the business environment, particularly in Brazil and Mexico. “we are encouraged by the outlook for a faster-than-expected market recovery in Brazil and the anticipated acceleration of organic growth in 2027,” Smith said. He too noted an ongoing arbitration with AT&T Mexico, stating the company remains confident in its legal position and that the outcome could impact organic growth.
Negotiations with TIM Brasil concluded with a renewed, unified contract extending to 2034.
As of the end of 2025, American Tower operated 47,081 sites in Latin America, a decrease of 181 sites in the quarter and more than 1,220 sites year-over-year. Brazil, the company’s second-largest market globally by deployed sites, accounts for 22,389 towers and communication structures, followed by Mexico with 8,949. Colombia (4,864), Peru (4,419), Chile (3,788), Paraguay (1,450), Costa Rica (714), and Argentina (508) comprise the remainder. Latin America represented 16.4% of American Tower’s property revenue in the fourth quarter.
Globally, the company plans $1.9 billion in capital deployments this year, including the construction of approximately 2,000 sites. The majority of sites and capital expenditure will be concentrated in developed markets, specifically the United States and Europe, as well as data centers. Approximately $270 million is allocated to Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region.
The recent departure of American Tower’s international chief, as reported by TelcoTitans.com, adds another layer to the company’s strategic adjustments as it navigates these regional challenges.
