Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade disputes, the global economy is displaying surprising resilience, according to a latest analysis from Swiss wealth manager Bantleon. The firm’s chief economist, Dr. Daniel Hartmann, predicts a continuation of the rally in risk assets through 2027, driven by a robust U.S. Economy, fiscal stimulus in Europe, and strong growth in emerging markets.
The assessment, released February 10, 2026, contrasts with more pessimistic forecasts, citing an investment-led upswing in the United States as a key factor. The U.S. Economy grew by more than 3.0% in the second half of 2025, with China expanding at nearly 5.0%, and the Eurozone achieving 1.2% growth. Bantleon anticipates further economic improvement throughout 2026.
“The U.S. Remains the linchpin of the global economy,” Hartmann stated. Investment in machinery, equipment, and particularly in artificial intelligence infrastructure – including data centers, computer hardware, and software – surged by around 15% in 2025 and continues to accelerate. Technology companies have already announced further projects totaling several hundred billion dollars.
Hartmann emphasizes that this investment boom is broadening, extending beyond the technology sector to encompass the U.S. Middle market. “The improvement in financing conditions is a particular feature of the current environment,” he explained. He noted the high volume of corporate bond issuance at the start of 2026 as an initial indicator, with the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy contributing to easier access to liquidity.
Europe is also poised for growth, fueled by significant fiscal packages. The German government plans to increase spending by more than 120 billion euros over the current legislative period – equivalent to roughly three percent of its gross domestic product. More than half of this increase is expected to be implemented in 2026. While critics question the immediate impact, Hartmann points to a recent lifting of a budget freeze as a catalyst, with industrial order intake increasing by 14% in two months and a substantial backlog of orders.
The Eurozone’s recovery is further supported by the EU’s recovery fund, which has approximately 450 billion euros allocated to Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Greece, of which around 60% has been utilized. Bantleon forecasts Eurozone GDP growth of 1.8% in 2026, exceeding the consensus estimate of 1.2%.
Emerging markets, particularly India, Vietnam, Taiwan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, are also demonstrating strong growth rates of five to seven percent. Hartmann attributes this to overcoming inflation problems and establishing self-sustaining growth momentum. He anticipates that easing geopolitical tensions will further bolster this dynamic.
Despite the positive outlook, Hartmann cautions that the Federal Reserve is nearing the complete of its easing cycle. Inflation is expected to remain above 2%, and the investment-driven economic expansion is likely to increase demand for labor. He anticipates, at best, one further 25-basis-point interest rate cut by mid-2026, acknowledging the potential for political pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee to align with the President’s policies, but believes that the current composition of the FOMC makes an aggressive easing scenario unlikely.
Looking ahead to the first half of 2027, Bantleon anticipates a temporary slowdown in economic growth that could put pressure on risk assets. The firm’s early indicators suggest that the tailwinds from fiscal and monetary policy, easing trade tensions, and the AI boom will begin to subside. U.S. Growth could temporarily fall below 2%. However, Hartmann does not foresee a full-scale sell-off, characterizing the anticipated slowdown as a “mid-cycle slowdown” rather than a recession.
Bantleon also warns of the long-term risks posed by escalating global government debt, particularly in the United States, Japan, France, and China. Rising interest payments could necessitate significant cuts in government spending in the coming years, potentially hindering growth. However, the firm believes this scenario is unlikely to materialize until the late 2020s or early 2030s.
