2026 Trends: Legacy Business Models Break – Karen Webster

by Priya Shah – Business Editor

Jeff Bezos famously declared “your margin is my prospect,”⁢ encapsulating​ Amazon’s strategy of leveraging technology, scale, and customer obsession to disrupt incumbents and pass savings onto consumers. In the ⁤emerging Prompt Economy, this principle is becoming systemic. Instead of ⁢a single company actively seeking out margins⁢ to exploit, AI agents, acting on behalf ‍of‌ millions of⁣ consumers and businesses, are continuously hunting ‍for ⁢margins across ⁤all sectors.

PYMNTS Intelligence research demonstrates just how rapidly this shift is ⁢unfolding.Nearly 70% of consumers express⁣ interest in utilizing⁢ AI agents to streamline shopping, ⁢with ⁤over half desiring an autonomous agent to manage their weekly ⁢groceries or even identify thoughtful gifts based on⁤ personal connections . ‌PYMNTS estimates that approximately 30 million “Pro” consumers are​ already ‌relying on generative‍ AI and agentic⁢ techniques to handle the‌ majority of 54 everyday tasks, from ‌shopping and bill payments‌ to ‌travel⁤ arrangements. These consumers are essentially instructing software to identify and reclaim margins from others.

In this new landscape, the “opportunity” inherent in‌ a​ margin‌ no⁣ longer ⁤primarily resides ⁢with a platform, but rather with the agent representing the end user. The onus is ⁣now on the‌ ecosystem to demonstrate to that agent that any retained margin is justified by⁣ tangible value – be it price,convenience,security,or insightful details ​– or risk having that⁣ margin redirected ⁣elsewhere.

Autonomy​ vs. Drivers: The Uber and Waymo Paradigm Shift

The clash between⁣ human-driven ride-hailing services and autonomous fleets vividly⁢ illustrates‍ this ⁣dynamic. ⁣Uber’s initial success was built on transforming underutilized assets – human labor and privately owned‌ vehicles – into a fluid ​network. However, this model shifted risk⁤ and costs (like driver⁤ compensation)​ onto the drivers themselves. The largest cost within​ that system is the driver’s time.

Robotaxis‍ represent a fundamental‍ inversion of ⁤this ‍logic.A recent analysis revealed that Waymo’s driverless rides in⁣ San⁤ Francisco average $20,‍ compared to $16 for UberX and $14 for Lyft – a 31% and 41% premium, respectively. Despite‌ the higher cost, demand ​for​ Waymo is surging. trip ⁤volumes have exploded from just over 12,000 paid rides ⁢in August 2023 ‍to over 700,000 monthly by early ⁤2025,⁣ accumulating over ⁣10 million paid rides across multiple⁣ cities. Surveys indicate that approximately 70% of Waymo riders prefer the driverless experience,with over 40% willing to pay a premium ⁣of up to $10 ⁤for it .

This ​demonstrates a clear shift ⁢in value perception. Today, the higher cost of⁢ a​ Waymo ​fare reflects the⁣ initial ⁢capital and operational expenses of an emerging ‌autonomous ​network. Though, as fleets scale ⁣and ‌technology matures, the elimination of driver costs will unlock critically important efficiencies.The ⁢platform’s role is evolving ⁢from simply matching riders ⁢with drivers to orchestrating demand across a mix⁢ of human ⁢and autonomous ‍fleets, and increasingly, becoming a direct endpoint for consumer agents‍ and agentic mobility‍ protocols.

Essentially,the driver’s share of the revenue is⁣ becoming an opportunity for those who control the autonomous infrastructure,the dispatch algorithms,and the ⁣financing behind them.

Consumer ⁢Rails:‍ The Battle for Payment Margins

The payments industry is‍ another​ arena where this margin-hunting dynamic is playing out. for decades,⁢ card economics have been​ built on interchange fees, breakage, ⁣and a complex ⁤system of ‍incentives between issuers, networks, acquirers, and merchants. Interchange funds consumer rewards and fraud protection, while merchants⁣ view‌ fees as a necessary cost of doing business.

PYMNTS Intelligence ⁢research‍ reveals‌ the strong consumer attachment ⁣to this model. Roughly⁣ 72% of cardholders cite rewards as a key factor in their card selection, with over half strategically choosing cards to ​maximize those rewards and⁣ a quarter rotating⁤ cards⁢ across categories. ⁣Consumers‌ are ‍already‌ actively seeking ⁤value, albeit through conventional means.

Open banking and ⁢pay-by-bank solutions are often positioned as a merchant-amiable choice to card fees, offering instant account-to-account ⁣payments with lower costs and richer data. However, adoption rates remain⁣ modest, currently representing only a ⁣ low single-digit percentage of total consumer payments. Nevertheless, interest‌ is growing, ⁣with around 40% of U.S. consumers indicating they would‌ consider pay by‌ bank,‍ particularly younger demographics, for routine debit card purchases.

The key hurdle ⁤is‌ replicating the rewards and protections consumers have come to expect from cards. ‌ AI agents are poised to change this equation. ⁣Instead of ⁢merchants unilaterally dictating payment rails, consumers (through their agents) will‍ define‌ the rules, optimizing for net benefits considering rewards, cash flow flexibility, security, and ‍price. This will‍ create ‌a⁤ competitive showdown⁤ among merchants, issuers, consumers, and⁢ networks, as agents calculate⁣ the⁤ true⁣ value of each option.

Retail⁢ and Media: The Rise of agent-Driven Discovery

On the merchant⁤ side,​ retail media and promotional spending represent another ⁤significant⁤ margin pool at ⁤risk. ⁢Retailers and platforms ‍have built lucrative advertising networks on top of low-margin product sales, ​monetizing search placement and digital ​shelf space using first-party data. analysts ⁣predict that retail media​ will surpass traditional TV ad spend, reaching over $100 billion in global revenue by the ⁣end ⁤of the ⁤decade.

In the Prompt Economy, product discovery will increasingly occur within the agent layer. Rather of browsing retailer websites, consumers‌ will provide agents ⁤with specific goals – “new⁣ running shoes,” “a ‌four-slice toaster”⁤ –​ along with their preferences⁢ and​ constraints.‍ The agent⁤ will then conduct the⁣ search, ‌compare prices,⁣ check reviews, and ​vet merchants across multiple platforms .

This shift renders paid ⁤placements, co-op promotions, and on-site banners vulnerable. An agent analyzing structured product data, net prices (including fees⁣ and promotions), shipping terms, seller reliability, and user preferences will‍ disregard the visual hierarchy⁢ imposed‌ by retailers. Any promotional spending⁤ that⁢ doesn’t ‌demonstrably deliver value ⁢will become invisible, transforming the “retail ⁤media tax” into an opportunity for agents to secure savings for consumers or ​demand outcome-based fees from brands and ‍retailers.

B2B and Treasury: AI-Driven Efficiency Gains

this dynamic ⁤extends beyond consumer ⁣markets. In the B2B realm,AI is ⁤disrupting logistics,procurement,trade finance,and treasury ​management. The margin ‌pools in these areas are even⁢ larger, encompassing FX spreads, correspondent banking fees, supply chain financing costs, ⁤and inefficiencies in inventory ​and working capital.

AI-driven planning and optimization are enhancing supply chain predictability and reducing ​tolerance for inefficiency. Enterprises are leveraging demand forecasting,‍ network optimization, and dynamic routing to minimize ‌inventory and transportation‍ costs.

Agents integrated into ERP and procurement ‌systems can continuously ⁢benchmark suppliers based ⁣on price, performance,⁢ ESG metrics, and risk, automatically‍ reallocating spending when ⁣a supplier’s⁢ margin is no longer justified by service levels.In trade and treasury, stablecoins⁣ and blockchain networks are challenging traditional banking margins, offering near-instant settlement, transparent fees, ⁢and programmability.

Banks ⁤are responding​ with tokenized ⁣deposits, on-chain⁤ cash management, and AI-enhanced trade finance tools, aiming to provide similar speed and programmability with the security and​ regulatory compliance of traditional banking. This sets the stage for a showdown between non-bank issuers,banks,and corporations,where AI agents become the margin ⁢hunters on behalf of businesses.

AI ⁢Exposes the True Cost ⁢of ⁢Value

Consumers ⁤and businesses already except​ certain⁢ costs​ in exchange ​for convenience,‌ rewards, and efficiency.⁢ Consumers​ pay interest on credit cards, overdraft fees, and delivery charges. Businesses incur FX spreads,slow settlement times,and compliance costs.‌ These ⁢are often viewed as the ​cost of doing business.

Though, the​ key difference in 2026 ​and beyond is that‍ AI agents will present consumers and ‍businesses with alternatives, revealing the true, full cost of⁣ each option. This​ openness ‍will transform every hidden or sticky⁣ margin ⁤into an opportunity ‍for someone else. ‍

Ultimately, the Prompt Economy signals a ‌fundamental ‌shift: business models ⁢will be continuously repriced by agents. The Bezos ‌quote remains relevant – but​ the ⁣players have⁢ changed. The 2010s saw platforms⁢ leveraging data and scale to ⁢capture margins. In 2026,‍ agents, intelligent rails, ‍and secure ​credentials will‌ contest every margin, empowering consumers and businesses to determine⁣ who deserves ⁤what.

Find more observations⁣ and insights from Karen Webster about what may lie ahead:

What 2026 Will Make Obvious

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