Uganda‘s Certain Election, Uncertain Future
Yoweri Museveni is poised to win a sixth term as Uganda’s president, but the election does little to resolve the central question facing the nation: what comes after his decades-long rule? While the presidential vote is widely considered a foregone conclusion, a quiet but notable power shift is underway within Uganda’s political and military structures, centered around the potential succession of his son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba.
For years, Muhoozi, a general in the Ugandan army, was publicly associated with ambitions of conquering political leadership, even openly discussing taking the capital, Nairobi. Though, in recent months, he has adopted a noticeably restrained public profile, a move widely interpreted as a strategic decision to avoid appearing to challenge his father during the current campaign.
Despite this public silence, Muhoozi’s influence is demonstrably growing. Loyalists have been steadily promoted through the ranks of the military, while veteran figures from the original 1980s guerrilla movement that brought Museveni to power have been increasingly sidelined. These personnel changes are viewed as purposeful signals indicating a carefully orchestrated transition occurring within the military, bypassing open parliamentary debate.
the succession process isn’t limited to the armed forces. Equally importent, though less visible, is the maneuvering within Uganda’s ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM). elections for the NRM’s Central Executive Committee (CEC), the party’s highest decision-making body, reveal the true dynamics of power in Uganda.Positions on the CEC grant access to museveni and,consequently,to the patronage network - contracts,appointments,and favors – that underpins the regime,as well as influence over the future transition.
This year’s CEC elections were particularly contentious, reportedly involving significant financial incentives. Reports indicate bribes ranged from $260 to $1,300 per delegate, with candidates also offering jobs for family members, business opportunities, and even international travel in exchange for support. In one highly contested vote, delegates were reportedly transported to hotels both within Kampala and neighboring countries, ostensibly to secure their votes and shield them from rival bidders. These contests, though internal to the party, are crucial in determining who will be best positioned to exert influence in a post-Museveni uganda.
Museveni’s regime, like many long-standing autocratic systems, now primarily competes with itself rather than external opposition.Elections are less about demonstrating legitimacy and more about carefully managing the distribution of resources and maintaining stability within the existing power structure.
However, this structure is showing signs of strain. Museveni’s age, coupled with his son’s increasing assertiveness and growing economic grievances among Uganda’s young population, creates a volatile environment. The regime’s continued stability hinges on its ability to manage a transition of power without losing control, and to avoid unleashing the forces of dissent it has suppressed for decades.
Presenting his son as his successor offers Museveni a path to preserving family power while reassuring the military of continuity. However, this strategy carries significant risk. Hereditary succession could fracture the delicate coalition that has sustained his rule, and is viewed by many Ugandans, even within the NRM, as a form of dynastic overreach.
The outcome of the 2026 election will be pivotal in shaping Uganda’s political future. A cabinet and key party committees dominated by Muhoozi’s allies would signal the handover process has begun.Conversely, a lack of such dominance could lead to a prolonged period of uncertainty, awaiting a potential crisis to force a reckoning.
Currently, Museveni’s campaign focuses on established promises of “wealth creation,” “peace,” and “stability.” Token loans are distributed to the urban poor,the army receives new equipment,and the elite compete for access to the inner circle. ugandans widely anticipate that this election will not bring substantive change. The result is predictable; the succession remains unresolved, casting a shadow of uncertainty over the country.
