ASML Poised for Growth surge as high-NA EUV Adoption Accelerates, Despite Geopolitical Headwinds
Eindhoven, Netherlands - ASML Holding N.V. reported robust third-quarter 2023 results, including 6.7 billion euros in sales with a 51.6% gross margin, and maintains its 15% growth forecast for 2025. A key driver is surging demand for its EUV lithography systems, with an order intake of 5.4 billion euros – 3.6 billion euros of which came from EUV systems alone. the company reports over 300,000 wafers have already been processed using its high-NA systems, exceeding the pace of previous-generation technology adoption.
ASML’s dominance as the sole provider of EUV lithography remains central to its investment appeal. Analysts at Rothschild predict sales will jump from 32.6 billion euros in 2025 to 55.9 billion euros in 2030,alongside increasing operating margins from 35% to 44%. High-NA EUV (HNA-EUV) sales are projected to increase dramatically, from €2.3 billion (2026) to €6 billion (2030), contributing 55% of expected profit growth. Currently valued at 25x EV/EBIT, ASML’s valuation could reach 30-33x as HNA adoption accelerates.
Though, potential challenges loom. The company anticipates a significant decline in its China business in 2026. Delays in HNA rollout and potential weakness in semiconductor investment due to overcapacity also present risks. Despite these concerns, analysts believe ASML’s technological leadership and the expanding addressable market, fueled by the AI revolution’s demand for advanced chips, will outweigh these headwinds.
A new analysis from November 7th provides further insight into whether investors should buy or sell ASML stock. The report suggests urgent action is needed for current shareholders, offering guidance on navigating the company’s potential for continued growth.
