Pakistan On Track to Meet IMF Goals Despite Flood Challenges, New Report Finds
Islamabad, September 21, 2025 – Pakistan is currently projected to meet the economic targets set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), according to a new report released by Topline Research, despite recent devastating floods and ongoing inflationary pressures.The analysis, published in Dawn today, indicates the nation is making progress on IMF-mandated reforms and actively pursuing foreign investment in key emerging sectors.
The report notes that key economic indicators are “well within the IMF’s projections.” pakistan is actively courting investment in offshore drilling, mining, and Web 3.0 technologies, highlighted by the successful Pakistan Mineral Investment Forum 2025 held in April, which attracted over 5,000 delegates from more than 50 countries. Renewed interest from the United States in Pakistan’s offshore hydrocarbon resources is also seen as a potential boon to the country’s growth. The Reko Diq mining project, a flagship initiative, is anticipated to reach financial close in the coming weeks.
Though, the report acknowledges significant challenges posed by recent floods and heavy rains impacting much of Pakistan, excluding Balochistan and Azad Kashmir. While the intensity of the current flooding is less severe than past events, Topline cautions that it could temporarily disrupt economic reforms. The economy is expected to recover in the near term, but the floods are projected to increase relief spending and strain government revenues, leading to a revised fiscal deficit forecast of 4.8% of GDP for FY26, up from a previous estimate of 4.1%.
The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) is now expected to collect Rs13.6 trillion in tax revenues for FY26, a decrease from the earlier target of Rs14.1 trillion. Consequently,GDP growth is forecast to be between 2.75% and 3.25%, down from the previous range of 3.5% to 4%. Agriculture growth has been downgraded to 2.6% due to expected crop losses of 15% for rice and 10% for cotton.
Despite these revisions, the current account deficit is expected to remain within the 0-0.5% range of GDP. Topline revised its import growth forecast to 10% (from 9%) and lowered its export growth projection to 1% (from 4%),while anticipating remittances to grow by 6%.
The central bank is now likely to maintain the policy rate unchanged through FY26, revising a previous assumption of a potential rate hike. This decision is attributed to risks stemming from food inflation due to the floods, rising import bills, and geopolitical uncertainties, including recent tensions in israel and Qatar, which could impact oil prices.
An IMF mission is scheduled to assess Pakistan’s economic performance beginning September 25th, as the country continues to navigate the challenges of floods and inflation.
