Bitcoin Faces September Test as ETF Flows Offer Potential Lifeline
New York, NY – Bitcoin is entering a historically challenging month, but unprecedented inflows into newly launched spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could offer a buffer against its typical September downturn, analysts say. The cryptocurrency is currently navigating a landscape of mixed sentiment, with prediction markets leaning pessimistic despite significant accumulation by institutional investors.
September has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin, often experiencing price declines. However, this year’s market dynamic is unique. Metaplanet, a Japanese company, recently secured shareholder approval for an $884 million capital raise amidst a broader fundraising crunch, and together announced the acquisition of 1,009 BTC for approximately $112.2 million, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to exactly 20,000 – a stockpile currently valued at roughly $2.2 billion.This institutional appetite for Bitcoin coincides with growing anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve’s September meeting.
Despite these bullish signals, skepticism persists. On Myriad, a prediction market, 65% of users currently believe Bitcoin will fall to $105,000 before reaching $125,000. A recent Binance Australia poll revealed that only one in four of 1,900 investors expect Bitcoin to surpass $150,000 in the next six months, with half anticipating a trading range between $100,000 and $150,000. Though, half of those polled also indicated plans to increase their Bitcoin holdings.
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Markets Committee meeting on September 16 and 17 is a key factor. “The Federal Reserve’s September meeting is a dominant macro catalyst,” Gadi Chait, head of investment at Xapo Bank, told Decrypt. “With a potential US rate cut on the horizon, liquidity conditions could ease, increasing demand for risk assets and potentially boosting Bitcoin by 5-10%.”
The potential for continued and substantial ETF inflows remains a critical variable.Whether these inflows can outweigh historical seasonal pressures and broader macroeconomic uncertainties will determine if Bitcoin can defy its “September curse” this year.
