Philippines Hardens Stance in South China Sea Dispute, Risks Escalation with China
Manila is actively building a multilateral deterrence architecture in response to Beijing’s increasingly assertive actions, possibly drawing in the US adn escalating tensions in the region.
The Philippines has emerged as a leading voice defending its maritime claims in the South China Sea, driven by frustration with the lack of progress within ASEAN and a desire to internationalize the dispute [SOURCE]. This shift is manifesting in strengthened security ties with key partners,including Japan,the U.S., Australia, France, and India.
recent joint naval drills with Japan in may 2025 focused on anti-submarine warfare and interoperability, demonstrating a shared concern over China’s “gray-zone tactics” – specifically, the harassment of Filipino vessels at Scarborough Shoal with water cannons [SOURCE]. These exercises, alongside the expansive 2025 Balikatan exercises with the U.S. and Australia, signal a clear message that Manila will no longer passively accept Beijing’s encroachment [SOURCE].
These actions are a direct response to escalating incidents,such as the use of water cannons against Filipino fishing boats,highlighting the increasingly volatile maritime surroundings [SOURCE]. The Philippines also pursued legal avenues, filing an arbitration case in 2016 [SOURCE].
Though, this hardening stance is not without risk. China views these developments as provocative, with Chinese academics accusing the Philippines and Japan of “military collusion” and attempting to manufacture a “China threat” narrative [SOURCE]. Furthermore, the U.S. could be drawn
