China’s Pork Producers Face Mounting Challenges

Chinese pork farmers are struggling as prices plummet while production remains high, creating significant financial strain. This crisis impacts global markets and highlights the complexities of China’s economic landscape.

Price Plunge and Production Surge

Pork breeders in China are grappling with dwindling profits. Prices have been at historic lows for almost a year. Simultaneously, production has rebounded to pre-crisis levels.

Due to China’s persistent economic difficulties, there is a decrease in global consumption of pork. However, production has not slowed. Farms, which lost a third of their livestock to the swine plague between 2018 and 2020, have been replenished. This imbalance between supply and demand has resulted in price drops of 10–20% since January and 50% since 2020. The price of live animals is approximately 14 yuan per kilo, far from the 35-yuan record set in 2020.

Government Intervention and Breeder Losses

According to the Bloomberg agency, the sow population is estimated to be 40 million, a threshold at which the state can intervene in production. For over two years, the Chinese government has been attempting to control pork output to align with consumption and increase prices, according to meat sector economist Jean-Paul Simier. Breeders are currently losing around 70 yuan, or $10, per animal, according to Bloomberg.

Strategies to Curb Production

To stop the price declines, the National Development and Reform Commission, the state planning agency, has instructed farmers to reduce production. One method involves stopping the practice of fattening cattle beyond the usual slaughter weight. This practice is common in China when prices are low, allowing breeders to wait and increase meat production per animal, even if it is not always profitable.

Imports Remain Essential

China is the world’s foremost pork producer and consumer, and also the leading importer. Despite its scale, China imports only 3% of what it consumes, around 2 million tonnes. It remains structurally in deficit. Even if consumption decreases, maintaining imports is in China’s best interest to ensure a safety margin.

As a result, Beijing has extended its anti-dumping investigation into European pork, which was possibly extended on June 16, 2025. This action is a way to delay potential taxes and allows China the possibility of purchasing pork from Europe if relations with the United States, a key supplier to China, become complicated, explained Jean-Paul Simier.

China’s pork market affects the global market, impacting meat and cereal prices. Feeding China’s vast pig population requires the annual import of tens of millions of tons of soybeans. In the first quarter of 2024, China’s pork imports decreased by 20% year-on-year, reaching 480,000 tons, according to customs data (Statista, 2024).

Global Market Impact

The balance or imbalance in China’s pork market significantly influences global markets. It not only affects meat prices but also the cost of grains. This is because China imports vast amounts of soybeans yearly to feed its huge pig population.

The situation underscores the interdependence of global markets and the ripple effects of China’s domestic challenges.