UK MPs vote in the evening on the negotiated Brexit deal Theresa May with Brussels. A text that satisfies neither the Europhiles, supporters of closer ties with the European Union, nor eurosceptics, eager for a sharper break, which is bad news for the Conservative Prime Minister.
Here are the main scenarios possible after this crucial vote:
1) Parliament votes agreement = orderly exit
If the agreement is passed in Parliament, which seems unlikely, an orderly exit will ensue. Will open a post-Brexit transition period scheduled to last up to end of 2020 during which almost nothing will change. The rule agreement the question of the bill that will have to settle London to the EU to honor its commitments and defines the rights of expatriate citizens.
The most point controversial regards the "Backstop" a provision intended to prevent the return of anphysical border between Ireland and the British province of Northern Ireland to preserve the peace agreement on the island. This "safety net" provides for the creation of a "single customs territory" encompassing the EU and the UK, with further alignment for Northern Ireland, which would apply in the event of failed negotiations. to come on the future commercial relationship between London and the 27.
2) Parliament rejects the agreement = "No Deal" (+ second referendum?)
If the text is rejected by the House of Commons, one of the possible scenarios is that of a Brexit without agreement, particularly feared by the business community, with the specter of a collapse of the pound and a skyrocketing unemployment.
Economic relations between the United Kingdom and the EU would then be governed by the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO), and a multitude of customs and regulatory controls should be put in place urgently.
Shortages of drugs, monster traffic jams near the ports, grounded aircraft, loss of growth ... These prospects are swept by the most bitter Brexiters, for whom "a lack of agreement is better than a bad agreement", and who want an independent commercial policy.
However, the threat of a "no deal" seems to have been thwarted last week by MPs, with the adoption of an amendment requiring the executive to submit in three days, in case of rejection of the agreement, a "plan B" amendable.
The possibility of a second referendum, hitherto ruled out by Theresa May, is demanded by the Europhiles in the hope that it reverses the result of the consultation of 23 June 2016 and some politicians to unblock the situation.
It remains to define the questions asked: continuation in the EU or Theresa May's plan? Or exit without agreement? Without guarantee that the consultation would give a result different from that of June 2016.
The Labor Party, the main opposition party, would go along with this option if it did not get the early elections it wants.
3) Theresa loses + motion of censorship of Labor = new elections?
They should be preceded by a motion of censure, which is expected to drop the Labor if Theresa May loses Tuesday's vote.
However, if a hundred or so Tory deputies tried to overthrow Theresa May in December, it is not said that they are joining the Labor opposition for a maneuver that could make them lose power.
If Labor wins, they intend to negotiate a new agreement with Brussels but it would take time, said Jeremy Corbyn, referring to a likely postponement of the date of exit from the EU.
4) Brexit report (the most credible hypothesis given the lack of time)
Postponing Brexit via an extension of Article 50 of the EU Treaty, which governs the departure of a Member State, is increasingly emerging as a credible possibility, even if Theresa May wins the vote in Parliament because he would have only a short time to pass the necessary legislation before leaving the EU on 29 March.
The organization of a second referendum or early parliamentary elections would also require the postponement of the Brexit date.
A hundred MEPs from different political parties have pledged Monday to support a request for postponement of London. But in this case, quid European elections, which will take place between 23 and 26 May?
According to a diplomatic source, "an extension after March 29 is possible but not beyond June 30 because the new European Parliament will be constituted".
Theresa May said on Monday that the Brexit date should not be postponed.