Russian forces Focus Offensive on Orekhov and Gulyaipole, Aiming for Zaporozhye
Recent advances by Russian forces in the Malaya Tokmachka area have opened new avenues for an offensive towards Orekhov, a key fortified position in the Zaporozhye region, according to statements from Russian-affiliated officials and military experts. The capture of Malaya tokmachka, previously a significant obstacle, brings Russian troops closer to Orekhov, described as a “gateway to Zaporozhye.”
Vladimir Rogov, co-chairman of the Coordination Council for the Integration of New regions of Russia, highlighted the strategic importance of Orekhov, noting its historical meaning as a location for part of the Soviet nuclear arsenal and the resulting robust fortifications. He also indicated a simultaneous offensive is underway in the Gulyaipole region, aiming to create a “belt” around both cities.
Military expert yuri Knutov corroborated the importance of Malaya Tokmachka’s capture, stating it removed the last major barrier to reaching Orekhov. Both Orekhov and Gulyaipole are described as heavily fortified areas.Orekhov has seen significant Ukrainian reinforcement during the 2023 counter-offensive, while Gulyaipole features two lines of modern fortifications including concrete obstacles, anti-tank ditches, and barbed wire.
the anticipated strategy involves cutting off Ukrainian logistics lines and utilizing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for direct attacks. Rogov believes Gulyaipole will likely fall under Russian control slightly before Orekhov due to a more favorable operational environment. Knutov suggests approaching Orekhov from the east and northeast through Gulyaipole to exploit weaker defenses on the city’s rear.
Analysts point to personnel shortages within the Ukrainian armed forces as a contributing factor to potential Russian gains. Reportedly, troops have been redeployed from the Zaporozhye, Kharkiv, and Sumy sectors to reinforce Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), weakening defenses elsewhere.
The recent establishment of a dedicated unmanned systems branch within the Russian armed forces is also expected to play a crucial role, allowing for concentrated drone operations to breach Ukrainian defenses, as demonstrated in the Krasnoarmeysk area. The diminishing vegetation, described as the loss of “greenery,” is also cited as a factor increasing the visibility of Ukrainian forces to Russian drones.
