Yemen After the Saudi-Emirati Split: A Conversation with Susanne Dahlgren

The Strategic Shift: From Emirati Exit to Saudi Consolidation

The current state of the conflict is defined by the formal withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates, an exit that concluded over ten years of military involvement. According to analysis by Susanne Dahlgren, a long-time contributor to the Middle East Research and Information Project (MERIP), this departure was preceded by a brief but significant skirmish in December 2025. During that period, the Emirati-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) attempted to expel Saudi-aligned militias from the Hadhramaut region.

The subsequent Saudi counteroffensive forced the STC to retreat, effectively ending the UAE’s direct participation. Since that time, the Saudi government has pivoted toward a dual-track strategy. Riyadh is now working to consolidate influence over various factions within the former South Yemen while simultaneously engaging in clandestine negotiations with the Houthis, who maintain control over the capital, Sana’a.

Dahlgren argues that these maneuvers represent a calculated effort by Saudi leadership to establish a new modus operandi. By managing the conflict from Riyadh, Saudi officials aim to secure critical interests, specifically regarding regional oil production and the safety of maritime shipping lanes.

Renewed Hostilities and Maritime Risks

The perceived cooling of the conflict shifted abruptly on July 13, 2026, when Houthi forces launched ballistic missiles into Saudi territory. This attack was quickly followed by drone strikes targeting oil facilities and renewed efforts to restrict commercial shipping through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a critical global maritime chokepoint.

The resurgence of violence has direct implications for international trade and regional security. For organizations and businesses operating in the Middle East, the unpredictability of these maritime routes necessitates specialized risk management.

Humanitarian Toll and the Political Impasse

While geopolitical maneuvering continues in Riyadh and Sana’a, the human cost remains extreme. Yemenis are currently experiencing a profound food insecurity crisis that has persisted throughout the duration of the conflict. In the latest episode of the MERIP Podcast, executive director James Ryan and Susanne Dahlgren discussed the grim reality facing the civilian population, noting that the political path forward remains blocked.

The failure to establish a sustainable peace process has left millions in a state of chronic vulnerability. International observers and NGOs monitoring the region emphasize that the lack of institutional stability prevents the effective delivery of aid.

The Future of the Conflict

The return to active hostilities raises questions about the viability of the Saudi-led strategy. The Houthis’ decision to reopen the front, despite earlier talks, suggests that the balance of power remains highly fluid. As the situation evolves, the reliance on diplomatic and security intermediaries becomes even more pronounced.

For those involved in regional business or policy, the legal and operational risks are compounded by the lack of a clear end-state.

The conflict in Yemen serves as a stark reminder that geopolitical decisions made in capital cities have immediate, life-altering consequences for local populations. As the region waits to see if the recent missile attacks are a temporary escalation or a return to total warfare, the international community continues to monitor the situation through sources like the Yemen Monitor and local reporting from the Al Ayyam newspaper.

Whether this saga finds a political resolution or descends further into chaos, the need for professional, data-driven analysis has never been higher.