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Getty ImagesKyiv, Ukraine – Concerns are mounting in Ukraine that any potential ceasefire negotiations brokered with the involvement of former U.S. President Donald Trump could lead to concessions unfavorable to Ukraine, particularly regarding territorial control. These anxieties stem from trump’s historically deferential stance towards Russian President Vladimir Putin and his recent suggestions for a swift resolution to the conflict.
Throughout his political career, Trump has demonstrated a complex relationship with both Russia and Ukraine. Early in his second term, he publicly criticized ukrainian President volodymyr Zelenskyy, labeling him a “dictator” and implying blame for the ongoing war with Russia. While he has since expressed frustration with Putin – stating in April 2024 that Putin “is just tapping me along” – Trump has consistently avoided directly accusing the Russian leader of dishonesty regarding ceasefire intentions.
This pattern of reluctance to fully condemn Putin dates back to the 2018 Helsinki summit, where trump sparked widespread controversy by appearing to side with the Kremlin over U.S. intelligence agencies regarding Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.At the time, Trump stated he believed Putin’s denials, despite evidence presented by Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. The summit, held at the Presidential Palace in Helsinki, Finland, drew criticism from both Democrats and Republicans.
Currently, Trump, through his envoy Steve Witkoff, has proposed a trilateral meeting involving himself, Putin, and Zelenskyy to discuss a potential ceasefire. However,putin has dismissed these proposals,stating preconditions for such a meeting have not been met. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov indicated on May 16, 2024, that any talks require Ukraine to accept the “new territorial realities,” a reference to Russia’s annexation of Crimea and control over parts of eastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials fear that trump, if re-elected in November 2024, might pressure Ukraine into making territorial concessions to secure a deal with Putin. Iryna Herashchenko, a member of the Ukrainian Parliament, warned that Ukraine’s absence from any negotiations would be “very hazardous,” suggesting potential demands for land in exchange for peace. Zelenskyy, speaking on thursday, May 16, 2024, affirmed Ukraine’s willingness to engage in talks but emphasized the need for a “bold approach” from Russia.
The core disagreement remains the issue of territorial integrity. Russia insists on retaining control over Crimea, wich it annexed in 2014 following a pro-Russian uprising, and notable portions of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which it claims as independent republics. Ukraine maintains its sovereignty over all its internationally recognized territory, including these regions. The current front lines stretch approximately 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) across eastern and southern Ukraine.
Given the intractable nature of Russia’s demands, the potential benefits of a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin remain uncertain. analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have cautioned that a Trump-Putin agreement could prioritize a quick cessation of hostilities over a just and lasting peace, potentially leaving Ukraine vulnerable to future Russian aggression.
