US October nonfarm payrolls rise by 165,000 as unemployment falls to 4.1%
US Nonfarm Payrolls Jump by 165,000 as Unemployment Ticks Down to 4.1 Percent
The US labor market expanded at a pace far exceeding expectations in October, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 165,000 jobs, according to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The increase, reported by KBS News, dwarfs the 59,000 consensus estimate compiled by Dow Jones by roughly 2.8 times and outpaces the 48,000 monthly average recorded over the prior 12 months. Concurrently, the national unemployment rate dropped to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent a month earlier, defying consensus forecasts that expected joblessness to hold steady.
Financial markets quickly repriced monetary policy expectations following the release. According to the CME FedWatch tool cited by KBS News, futures markets assigned a 74.8 percent probability that the Federal Reserve will raise benchmark interest rates at the upcoming December Federal Open Market Committee meeting, up from 66.9 percent the previous day. Treasury yields edged higher across the curve. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 2.7 basis points to 4.864 percent, while the policy-sensitive 2-year yield rose by 4.2 basis points to 4.346 percent. The 30-year bond yield ticked up by 2 basis points to 5.27 percent.
Upward Revisions Boost Prior Payroll Numbers as Professional Services Lead Hiring
The strength of the October employment report was amplified by substantial upward revisions to the preceding two months. According to Y합뉴스, July nonfarm payroll growth was revised up by 53,000 to 186,000, while September additions were adjusted higher by 31,000 to 60,000, bringing the combined two-month net addition to 84,000 newly identified jobs.
Industry contributions showed a notable departure from recent trends. Professional and business services led all sectors by adding 70,000 jobs in October. Health care expanded by 42,000 positions, transportation and warehousing added 25,000, and manufacturing contributed 19,000. KBS News noted that while health care previously drove the vast majority of monthly gains, October displayed a more diversified expansion across service and industrial sectors.
Conversely, construction employment contracted by 3,000. Bloomberg cited by KBS News and Y합뉴스 pointed out that the construction sector decline marked the first drop in eight months, interrupting a prolonged upward trajectory driven heavily by data center development activity.
Average Hourly Earnings Outpace Market Forecasts
Wage pressures also reinforced the narrative of persistent labor demand. Average hourly earnings rose to $38.00 in October, translating to a 0.4 percent increase from September and a 3.1 percent advance over the same period last year. Both metrics exceeded market predictions of a 0.3 percent monthly gain and a 2.9 percent annual increase.