US Midterms: Cost of Living and War Put GOP Red Districts at Risk
Republican campaign groups are pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into safe southern districts as polls show unexpected tightening ahead of the November 3, 2026 midterm elections, with voter frustration over living costs threatening the party’s congressional majorities.
In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump carried a Texas House district by an 18-point margin, making it a securely red seat that required little outside investment. But in September, Republican political committees injected approximately $2 million, or about 3.15 billion yen, into the district to support the incumbent candidate, FNNプライムオンライン reported. That spending prompted election analyst Cook Political Report to shift the district rating from leaning Republican to a toss-up.
The financial adjustments extend far beyond Texas. Reuters data cited by FNNプライムオンライン shows that major Republican PACs and large donors began spending in at least 39 House districts on September 1 or later where they had previously invested nothing. Republican leaders have warned candidates not to assume victory even in districts Trump won by double digits.
High Living Costs Drive Voter Dissatisfaction
Voter dissatisfaction centers squarely on household expenses, including high prices and housing costs. A September Reuters/Ipsos poll placed Trump’s approval rating at 32 percent, with only 17 percent approving of his handling of the cost of living, according to FNNプライムオンライン. In the same survey, hypothetical congressional ballots favored Democrats over Republicans by eight points. Separately, an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll showed Democrats leading with 53 percent to 41 percent, driven by a 25-point advantage among independents.
Those economic pressures are compounded by energy costs tied to ongoing foreign conflicts. International political scholar Rena Sasaki noted in an interview with JBpress that gasoline prices climbed from around $3 per gallon early in the year to roughly 4.5 dollars, fueling voter discontent. Sasaki also observed that federal workforce reductions ordered by the administration have generated personal opposition even among some Washington-area Republican supporters and military-affiliated professionals.
Trump Proposes Trump Dividend to Gain Political Momentum
To reverse the political momentum, the administration has introduced major economic initiatives ahead of the November vote. At a Texas Republican party convention in September, Trump urged supporters to treat the ballot as if his name were listed, promoting the “Trump Dividend”—a proposal to distribute $5,000 per adult if Republicans retain majorities in both chambers of Congress, FNNプライムオンライン reported. The plan would require a massive scale of funding and congressional approval. On September 28, Trump announced a separate 15 billion dollar steel mill construction project in Iowa, designed to create up to 6,000 construction jobs and 1,750 permanent positions.
The legislative stakes are high for the second term. Control of the White House and both chambers of Congress currently rests with the Republican Party under a unified government structure. If the Democratic Party captures either the House or Senate, it would alter the balance of power for the final two years of the presidential term, directly impacting federal oversight, budgets, and pending legislation.
Shifting Ratings Across Safe Districts
Editorial assessments from 朝日新聞 emphasize that the midterms serve as the first major referendum on the second Trump administration, noting that household burdens stem directly from current policies such as fuel price hikes from the Iran war, import tariffs, and immigration restrictions contributing to labor shortages. While core MAGA voters remain energized, the combination of economic strain, independent voter defection, and widening battlegrounds has transformed dozens of traditionally safe contests into competitive races.