Ukraine War: Putin’s Miscalculations & Russia’s Mounting Costs – 4 Years On

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin chaired a Security Council meeting in Moscow on February 20, 2026, as the conflict in Ukraine entered its fifth year, marked by escalating casualties and a shifting economic landscape within Russia.

Four years after launching a full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, the Kremlin’s initial expectation of a swift victory – reportedly within ten days, according to research from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) – has given way to a protracted and costly war. The conflict has exposed vulnerabilities in Russia’s military and revealed a stronger-than-anticipated resistance from Ukraine.

Estimates of Russian casualties are heavily guarded by the Kremlin, but recent research from the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) suggests a staggering toll: nearly 1.2 million Russian dead and injured since the full-scale invasion began. This figure, which does not include Ukrainian casualties estimated between 500,000 and 600,000, surpasses the combined losses of any major power in any war since World War II, according to the CSIS report. Approximately 325,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, exceeding the total US combat deaths in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq combined.

Ukrainian officials have claimed to be inflicting significant losses on Russian forces, recently reporting the killing of 35,000 troops in December 2025 alone. Ukraine’s defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, stated at a recent news conference that Kyiv’s military planners aim to kill Russian soldiers at a rate exceeding the pace of modern recruit training and deployment, suggesting a strategy focused on attrition. “If we reach 50,000, we will see what happens to the enemy. They view people as a resource and shortages are already evident,” Fedorov said.

Although the war’s impact appears distant in Moscow, where life continues with relative normalcy, the Russian economy is showing signs of strain. Military spending has surged, and Russia’s economy defied initial Western predictions of collapse, becoming the ninth-largest globally in 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund, surpassing Canada and Brazil. However, the economic structure is becoming increasingly distorted.

The cost of recruiting soldiers has risen sharply, with substantial signing bonuses and payouts for those killed in action. Military prioritization has also created a “severe labour shortage” in other industries, with one Russian newspaper, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, reporting a require for 800,000 blue-collar workers. Rising food prices, particularly for cucumbers – which have doubled in price since December – are fueling consumer discontent, with online posts expressing frustration over wartime inflation. “The prices for cucumbers and tomatoes are outrageous. Once, they said eggs were ‘golden’. Now it’s cucumbers,” one online commenter wrote.

The war has also diminished Russia’s international standing. The expansion of NATO, with Sweden and Finland joining the alliance in direct response to the invasion, represents a failure of one of the Kremlin’s stated objectives. Finland’s accession alone has more than doubled the length of Russia’s border with NATO countries.

Russia’s reliance on China has increased, creating an unbalanced relationship where Moscow is the junior partner, according to a recent report from the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). “Russia has clearly become the junior partner, primarily due to its limited economic alternatives,” the CEPA report stated.

Russia has been unable to prevent setbacks for its allies. In 2024, Russia evacuated and granted asylum to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad after he was overthrown by rebel forces, and the new Syrian president has repeatedly requested Assad’s extradition from Moscow. Russia also stood by as US and Israeli warplanes struck Iranian nuclear facilities last summer, and failed to protect Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from a raid by US troops in Caracas last month.

As the conflict continues, Russia finds itself depleted at home and diminished on the international stage, a stark contrast to the expectations held at the outset of the invasion.