Ukraine’s New Long Neptune Missile Boosts Confidence, May Shift War Balance
KYIV, Ukraine – A recent Ukrainian missile strike, utilizing the domestically produced Long Neptune cruise missile, appears to have had a disproportionately positive impact on Ukrainian morale and strategic outlook, according to analyses from multiple sources. The strike, details of which remain closely guarded, is believed to be influencing perceptions of the conflict’s trajectory and possibly altering the calculus for both sides.
Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, stated in an analysis for the Friedrich Ebert Foundation that Ukrainian industrial production has increased ”around 19 percent from the end of 2023 to today.”
Analysts suggest the effectiveness of the Long Neptune, alongside other new Ukrainian weaponry like the Flamingo and Palianytsia cruise missiles, may lie less in sheer destructive power and more in the psychological effect of demonstrating Ukraine’s growing capacity to strike back. According to an analysis by Saab, a soldier “who has had positive experiences with his weapon would be more willing to take risks, act proactively and actively attack the enemy.”
The Spiegel magazine’s initial assessment of the Long Neptune’s impact may have underestimated the weapon’s effect on Ukrainian self-confidence, with the actual outcome potentially being “damage limited, benefits great.”
Jack Watling, writing in Foreign Affairs, posits that the Long neptune’s success could force Vladimir Putin to question the sustainability of the conflict. If the missile contributes to an economic crisis in Russia - a scenario where “the economic and political risks of a protracted conflict outweigh the expected benefits” – Ukraine’s allies may be able to negotiate a ceasefire. Though, Watling suggests this strategy relies on Ukraine’s ability to maintain its position until 2026.
(Sources: Friedrich Ebert Foundation, Saab, dpa, Spiegel, Kiyv Post, Süddeutsche Zeitung, Foreign Affairs, Ukrainska Pravda)
