Here’s a breakdown of the key arguments presented by Alfred McCoy in this interview excerpt, focusing on the themes of US decline, the rise of China, and US policy in Latin America:
1. The Shift in Global Power & Energy:
* Historical Parallel: McCoy draws a parallel between past empires and their control over key energy sources. Spain (slavery), Britain (coal), and the US (oil) all built their power on energy dominance.
* China’s Green Energy Dominance: He argues that China is now leading the “green energy revolution” – particularly in solar and electric vehicles – and this will be the foundation of its future global hegemony. The affordability and scale of Chinese EV production (e.g., $9,000 cars) are a key factor.
* US Missteps: The US is failing in two key areas: misusing military power and making poor energy policy choices, accelerating its decline.
2. US Policy in latin America: A Return to Gunboat diplomacy
* New National Security Strategy: Trump’s NSS signals a shift in US focus away from Eurasia and towards achieving dominance in Latin America.
* Historical Precedent: McCoy points to the late 19th/early 20th century (1898-1933) as a period of US “gunboat diplomacy” in the Caribbean, intervening in countries like panama to secure its interests. He believes Trump is aiming to revive this approach.
* Short-Term Gain, Long-term Loss: While the US might achieve short-term control, this interventionist policy will likely provoke anti-imperialist sentiment, strengthen China’s economic ties with Latin America, and ultimately diminish US influence.
* The “War on Drugs” as a Pretext: The “war on drugs” is described as a failed policy that actually increases drug supply due to basic economic principles (reducing supply raises prices, incentivizing more production).It’s seen as a justification for US intervention.
3. Specific Latin American Examples:
* Venezuela: Trump’s actions regarding Venezuela (abduction of officials, oil restrictions) are linked to broader strategic goals, potentially including undermining the Cuban government.
* Mexico: Trump’s threats of military intervention in Mexico are framed within this broader strategy of asserting dominance. However, Sheinbaum points out that collaboration with the US has already reduced fentanyl crossings.
* Cuba: Targeting Cuba and restricting Venezuelan oil sales are seen as part of the overall effort to exert control.
In essence, McCoy paints a picture of a declining US empire, challenged by a rising China, and a US foreign policy that is both misguided and potentially self-destructive, particularly in its approach to Latin America. He argues that the US is repeating historical mistakes by resorting to interventionism and failing to adapt to the changing global energy landscape.
